Pakistan not going bankrupt

Imtiaz Rafi Butt

There is a great sense of despair and unease in Pakistan these days. The economy is in crisis. Inflation is rampant in the country. Suicide bombings taking place in all major urban centres not to mention the war that is going on right now in the NWFP and Balochistan. We keep on hearing that Pakistan is going to go bankrupt. As if that was not enough there is an impression that we are going to all potential sources of financial relief such as our old friends in the Gulf, major world powers, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank with a begging bowl in hand; and still being refused any sort of significant financial aid. This serious situation many believe will lead to inevitable economic collapse.

This conclusion, however, is faulty as it does not take into consideration certain geopolitical realities unique to Pakistan. In the international politics as is in the case with almost every other human endeavour; self-interest is the primary driving force behind all actions or inactions. If there is a benefit to be gained by our ‘friends’ then only help will come. If serving Pakistan at this time serves their own strategic interests, then they will have an incentive to help Pakistan. In this case however it is the direct interest of all world powers, especially the US to ‘bail out’ Pakistan; not because there is a direct benefit for them but because if they fail to act and let Pakistan slip into the abyss, the long-term cost of their inaction will far outweigh the cost of any monetary relief that the Pakistani government could request for.

It is easier to conceptualise my argument by making a small hypothetical case study though it is overly simplified it makes the point.

Imagine you were a world superpower at war with a fanatically determined enemy that passionately detests your existence and actively attempts to destroy anyone that supports you or is within your sphere of influence. Now imagine that the war has gone on for many years, you are no closer to victory and there is no end in sight. The war has taken its toll on your nation financially, morally and politically. The economy is in recession. The war has lost meaning at home and support has run out of steam but now that you have disturbed the hornets nest; you believe that it is a war that must be fought to the end and won; for if not contained your enemy will spread throughout the region, destroying your allies from within acquiring their resources and establishing itself. The enemy will reorganise and reinforce to strike back on a later date manifold stronger.

Now add to this a hypothetical fact that your essential ally in the region (via whom most of the supplies that reach your forces fighting in Afghanistan have to go through) bordering and involved in the war zone is inhabited the world’s only nuclear armed Muslim nation. Your only real hope to win this war of not just military means but hearts and minds as well, stems from the cooperation of this ally. This ally, however, has suffered greatly from the effects of fighting an unpopular war against its own people on its own soil and is now financially and politically exhausted. Without the prompt use of your own financial might and global influence, this ally will collapse with a domino effect that will have repercussions for not just your strategic interests but that of all major powers.

The cost benefit analysis as well as common sense dictates that the short-term cost of financially reinforcing your ally is much cheaper then doing nothing. By granting them less then a fraction of what you have already spent on the war. You are able to deal a significant blow to the enemies’ chances of acquiring nuclear weapons and avoid military and political disaster at the same time. What would you do?

There is no precedence of philanthropy to beggers in international politics. If Pakistan will get any aid from the international community, it will not be because we have “friends” or because we have a begging bowl in our hand. If we get financial relief from the world and we will, the reason will be because of our intrinsic worth to the international community. If Pakistan enters further turmoil a Pandora’s Box will be opened.

The US cannot allow this to happen. Both US presidential candidates have promised support for Pakistan stressing non-military. Barrack Obama himself is a co-sponsor of the Biden Package which promises $15 billion in assistance to Pakistan over 10 years. He has stressed the importance of establishing a relationship with the Pakistani people not just the government and will pledge more aid to eradicate poverty and encourage education so that Pakistan has an enlightened and moderate future.

The meeting of the group of important donor countries “Friends of Pakistan” this month in Abu Dhabi will be a positive sign for Pakistan. There will be pledges of aid made by many countries which have had a long-term strategic relationship with Pakistan. It is in the strategic interests of the international community to provide us aid in these difficult times and they will do so.

Pakistan is not going bankrupt we are too important for them.

The writer is Chairman Jinnah Rafi Foundation

http://thepost.com.pk/OpinionNews.aspx?dtlid=191461&catid=11