Resolving the Kashmir dispute

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

The encouraging statements of President elect Barak Obama have generated a feeling among the Kashmiri people that the new President would make concerted efforts to resolve the ongoing Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan. Celebrating Obama’s election victory, the students of Kashmir University even took out a candle light procession in Srinagar.

Most Kashmiri leaders have welcomed Obama’s win in the hope that he would make concerted efforts in order to resolve the dispute. ‘We see a role for US in resolution of Kashmir issue and hope that Obama will fulfill his responsibility’ said Mir Waiz Umar Farooq, the Chairman of All Parties Hurriyat Conference. Highlighting Obama’s win as an historic event, Syed Ali Gilani hoped that Obama would use his good offices to resolve the Kashmir dispute. He even appealed to the newly elected US President to put pressures on India to give the right of self determination it promised to the people of Kashmir.

It is a foregone conclusion that Kashmir dispute cannot be resolved unless India changes its attitude and policies. Undoubtedly the key to the dispute lies with the Indian authorities. Two questions need to be analyzed here as both are directly concerned with the resolution of the dispute. Would the new American administration put concerted pressures on India? Would the Indian authorities succumb to the American pressures? Alternatively would the Indian authorities be willing to concede to the American wishes or would they manage to wriggle out?

As far as the answer to the first question is concerned, one can safely assume that the new American administration would certainly make efforts during its first year of office. Given the optimistic impression that has been generated by the positive statements, one can say with some certainty at the moment that a good beginning would be made. How long these efforts would take to peter off remains to be seen as it is heavily dependent upon the nature of responses that are like to come from the Indian side.

The second question is much simpler than the first one. A simple scrutiny of past behavior of the Indian authorities clearly gives us to understand that they would make concerted diplomatic efforts to avoid any other solution of the dispute than what they want. It would not be surprising that the Indian authorities manage to convince the Americans to accept their solution of the dispute.

If the Americans are going to embark upon course of action with the sincere aim of resolving India-Pakistan dispute, then they should be prepared to put concerted pressures on India as well as on other parties of the dispute. But as mentioned above the key to solution lies with Indian, and it remains to be seen how far the Americans are willing to apply pressures on India. The past record amply indicates that after the initial spate of pressures the Americans invariably begin to reduce their pressures to negligible levels.

Given the expressed good intentions of the Americans to mediate in the ongoing Kashmir dispute and seek a desired resolution, it would be quite in order to highlight some of the major problems they are likely to confront. To begin with it appropriate for the Americans to go through the earlier mediatory efforts that were undertaken by the UN, Commonwealth, UN special representatives, and many prominent individuals and ascertain what caused their failure.
Throughout the history of dispute the Indian had been engaged to de-link the dispute with UN and other international organizations and in this regard they have been fairly successful. At Simla in 1972, the major motivational factor to transform the UN brokered ceasefire line to a Line of Control was the desired de-linking. The underneath idea was to avoid the UN involvement and treat it as a bilateral issue which should only be resolved through bilateral efforts. This also implies that the accepted UN resolutions should be avoided.

It needs to be highlighted here that while the Indian authorities avoid mentioning of the already accepted UN resolutions, the other parties such as Pakistan and the Kashmiri leadership almost regularly refer to them as panacea for the desired resolution of the dispute. Even today the leadership of APHC continuously asks for their right of self determination whereas the Indians refuse to grant this right.

The Indian argument revolves around the periodically held elections which they interpret as the Kashmiri verdict. It is a well known fact that not only the supporters of AHPC have never participated in these elections but those who participated were extremely limited in numbers. If the Kashmiri people are given a choice between the holding of a plebiscite and these elections, the foregone conclusion is that a vast majority would vote for exercising their right of self determination. Indeed the periodically held elections are no substitute to their promised right of self determination.

To change the Indian intransigent attitude in order to accept any reasonable proposal with regard to the future status of the Kashmir would indeed be a major challenge for the Americans mediators. To guard against the Indian ability to shift the focus from Kashmir dispute to some other area of interest or linking it with other issues would be another challenge for the American mediators. Besides, how would the Americans deal with the often stressed Indian slogan that there will be no redrawing of Kashmir boundaries?

Over the years many opportunities to resolve the dispute were wasted primarily because of Indian rigid attitude over the Kashmir dispute. The Indians are not even willing to get the true representatives of the Kashmiri people involved in the ongoing peace process, how the American would change the Indian mind set which considers Kashmir as part of India. To buy time the Indian took the dispute to the UN and even committed itself to the UN resolutions only to renegade later.

While it a well recognized fact that road to Kashmir’s resolution is studded with enormous complex difficulties, one must appreciate the intended efforts of the newly elected President.

Whether or not he is successful remains to be seen. However he certainly deserves encouragement and cooperation from all concerned and involved directly or indirectly.
The writer works for Islamabad Policy Research Institute

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