The Kashmir Opportunity

  According to Indian sources the militancy in Indian Held Kashmir is down by over 43% and in the recent elections the turnout was over 63% and compared to the previous election the violence during elections declined by 86%. India attributes this positive change to its effective counter insurgency measures, the elimination of militant leaders and the fact that the population is fed up of militancy and longing for normalcy. There is never any mention of the atrocities by Indian Security Forces and what the Kashmiris think of that.

There is no acknowledgment of any steps by Pakistan that may have brought about these changes. After all the cease fire on the Line of Control is holding– though Indians routinely list violations by Pakistan. The Shri Amarnath Land Agitation triggered by India’s policy blunders could have been exploited to create anarchic conditions because it introduced extreme polarization in IHK with extremist Hindu organizations fanning the flames of violence—but this was not done. Indians also lose no opportunity to state that the infrastructure for the support of militancy is in tact in Pakistan and militants trained in ‘training camps’ are ready and waiting–yet no credit to Pakistan for holding these forces in check. Why?

The reason is that any favorable statement about Pakistan and its commitment to settle issues through dialogue would undermine India’s multi front destabilisation campaign against Pakistan and the Indian design of maligning Pakistan internationally. It would also be against India’s deliberate policy of involving Pakistan as a state in the Mumbai terror attacks–though there are no takers for these accusations. To cover up its lack of reciprocity India reasons that it is Pakistan’s economic decline and internal instability that prevents Pakistan from supporting militancy in Kashmir. The fallacy in this argument is that Pakistan committed itself to a dialogue and eschewed the use of force long before its internal problems began.

In fact Indian logic would therefore dictate that Pakistan must be further destabilized internally so that it cannot interfere in IHK. Pakistan has been saying that India is using Afghan territory to spread terror in Swat, FATA, Baluchistan, NWFP and even deeper in Pakistan. Recently there has been a surge in the activity in these regions as India implements its policy of pressure on Pakistan This explains the violent reaction in India to the plain speaking by David Miliband. It also explains India’s rabid opposition to any US special envoy to help resolve the Kashmir dispute because it is the single most important reason for conflict and hostility. India is exploiting the situation for its covert policy against Pakistan.

India’s current policy is short-sighted and expedient. Pakistanis are wondering why they should be making any overture towards India if there is going to be no reciprocity and offers of cooperation are going to be met with hostility. There are also those who argue that asymmetric actions should continue as it is the only way to check Indian ambitions and stop it from using Afghanistan to destabilize Pakistan. There is an opportunity here that is being wasted because India does not have the heart of the big power that it wants to become. India must restart dialogue and begin the process of cooperation in Afghanistan and not destabilize the region for its narrow interests and ambitions.

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