Raven Gale
http://raven-gale.newsvine.com/
The US has a new President. He has appointed a special envoy for Afghanistan-Pakistan. US has decided to increase non-military aid to Pakistan but linked to Pakistan’s management of its border situation with Afghanistan. The US is telling Pakistan that it will do more if Pakistan does more.
Russia has chosen this time to respond to President Karzai’s November 2008 request for support. The Russian President has indicated willingness for broad support and cooperation in specific areas. The US CENTCOM is looking for alternative supply routes to Afghanistan because the best and most direct route through Pakistan is not reliable. The only alternative route is through Russia or the Central Asian States—an area of Russian interest and influence. The EU faced gas supply interruption through Ukraine recently. Russia has linkages with the former Northern Alliance that is now the mainstay of the US backed government in Afghanistan. Russia is resurgent and asserting itself in its former sphere of influence---that included Iran.
India is not amused over recent references to Kashmir by the US and more recently by the British Foreign Secretary. India also does not like the fact that there is general acceptance that Pakistan as a state was not involved in the Mumbai terror. India wants the stand-off with Pakistan to continue. India fears more such attacks if Pakistan does not move against non-state actors and the infrastructure that supports them. India says it has provided evidence. Pakistan calls it information but has promised to investigate. The dialogue between the two countries has been put on hold by India. India has general elections this year.
Pakistan faces an insurgency in its west that has its roots and backing in Southern Afghanistan but an agenda of its own. Pakistan is carrying out determined military action but lacks a full spectrum counterinsurgency strategy. Pakistan thinks India and the Afghan government are in cahoots to destabilize Pakistan and the US is looking the other way. Pakistan has internal stability and political problems. Pakistan faces a difficult economic situation. Pakistan does not want a confrontation with India and it wants Afghanistan to stabilize---it offers cooperation and joint investigations. Pakistan is alive to the geopolitical and geostrategic realities of its location---especially with reference to Russia and China.
2009 will be a busy and eventful year in greater South Asia.
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