Pakistan needs sense of security to combat terrorism

By Wajid Ali Syed

Washington, 14 April, (Asiantribune.com): President Barak Obama's consultant on counter insurgency fears that Pakistan could collapse within months if the ongoing situation prevails in the region. "We have to face the fact that if Pakistan collapses it will dwarf anything we have seen so far in whatever we're calling the war on terror now," warned David Kilcullen, a former Australian Army officer who was also a specialist adviser for the Bush administration.

You just can't say that you're not going to worry about al-Qaeda taking control of Pakistan and its nukes, he said in a article published in Australia's Herald. Dr Kilcullen is also an advisor to the British and Australian governments and the Nato on counter-terrorism and counter insurgency issues and considered non political and outspoken.

As the US implements a new strategy in Central Asia so comprehensive that some analysts now dub the cross-border conflict "Obama's war", Dr Kilcullen said time was running out for international efforts to pull both countries back from the brink.

President Obama announced his new 'Afpak' policy in Washington last month that warned that Al Qaeda was already rooted in Pakistan, plotting more attacks. The review thus suggested more economic and military aid to Pakistan to combat the terrorist organization. But since then Pakistan US are experiencing lack of trust issues.

Laying out the scale of the challenges facing the US in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, Dr Kilcullen put the two countries invaded by US-led forces after the September 11 attacks on the US on a par - each had a population of more than 30 million. "But Pakistan has 173 million people and 100 nuclear weapons, an army which is bigger than the American army, and the headquarters of al-Qaeda sitting in two-thirds of the country which the Government does not control," he said.

Cautioning against an excessive focus by Western governments on Afghanistan at the expense of Pakistan, Dr Kilcullen said that "the Kabul tail was wagging the dog". Comparing the challenges in the two, he said Afghanistan was a campaign to defend a reconstruction program. "It's not really about al-Qaeda. Afghanistan doesn't worry me. Pakistan does," he said.

But he was hesitant about the level of resources for, and the likely impact of, Washington's new drive to emulate an Iraq-style "surge" by sending an extra 21,000 troops to Afghanistan. "We can muddle through in Afghanistan. It is problematic and difficult but we know what to do. What we don't know is if we have the time or if we can afford the cost of what needs to be done."

Dr Kilcullen said a fault line had developed in the West's grasp of circumstances on each side of the Durand Line, the disputed border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. "In Afghanistan, it's easy to understand, difficult to execute. But in Pakistan, it is very difficult to understand and it's extremely difficult for us to generate any leverage, because Pakistan does not want our help," he mentioned while suggesting that there are many stakeholders involved in Pakistan including military and intelligence establishments - who fear India as their prime enemy.

Since there isnt any regional diplomatic plan to build trade confidences in place tackling security issues has been a problem. The special US envoy Richard Holbrooke has been charged with brokering a regional compact by reaching out to Iran, Russia and China - which Dr Kilcullen thinks could work. "This requires regional architecture to give the Pakistani security establishment a sense of security which might make them stop supporting the Taliban," he said.

Kilcullen suggests that all the possible ways to handle the situation should be carried out, saying the US can deal with Afghanistan, with more military on the ground and a regional security deal. "The worst case was that Washington would fail to stabilise Afghanistan, Pakistan would collapse and al-Qaeda would end up running it.

"It's too early to tell which way it will go. We'll start to know about July. That's the peak fighting season … and a month from the Afghan presidential election," he said.

The announced extra troops to Afghanistan will reach by the end of June and most of them will be helping the Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police to keep peace and security for the August elections in Afghanistan. The ANA and ANP will also be trained by 4,000 troops to combat terrorism.

- Asian Tribune -