What does Obama Afghan strategy mean for Pakistan?

By Zeeshan Haider




Dec 1 (Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama said on Tuesday he is sending 30,000 more U.S. troops to Afghanistan by next summer to speed the battle against the Taliban and plans to start bringing some home in 18 months.




Here are few questions and answers about the implications of Obama's strategy for Pakistan.




WHY DOES PAKISTAN MATTER?




Lawless tribal areas between Pakistan and Afghanistan are seen as a global militant hub. Obama wants Pakistan to crack down harder on Taliban and al Qaeda militants in the area to help put down the insurgency in Afghanistan. Osama bin Laden is believed to be hiding in the region, possibly on the Pakistani side. So Pakistan may be in the best position to find him.




U.S. and Afghan officials say militants orchestrate attacks in Afghanistan from their Pakistani safe havens.




WHAT ARE PAKISTAN'S WORRIES?




Pakistan fears a U.S. troop surge in Afghanistan would force militants to flee to Pakistan's border areas, particularly in the southwestern Baluchistan province where the government is already struggling to end a low-level insurgency by tribal militants.




Pakistan's hands are already full. It is battling Taliban militants on its own soil and a deeper push into the main conflict zones near the border could suck in Pakistani troops and lead to heavy casualties.




Pakistan's army launched an offensive in mid-October in South Waziristan, a wild northwestern tribal region and a major sanctuary for al Qaeda and the Taliban militants. Militants responded with bombings, killing hundreds of people.




Pakistanis are also nervously looking at Obama's exit strategy. At a time when the Afghan government is struggling to take over security responsibilities, Pakistani officials fear a hasty U.S. pullout could trigger factional fighting in Afghanistan and lead to problems at home.




Memories of the United States withdrawing from Afghanistan after the Soviet withdrawal in 1989 and leaving the country in chaos are still vivid in Pakistan.




A repeat of that scenario could also trigger proxy wars among regional players, including Pakistan, its old rival India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Central Asian states as witnessed in the 1990s.




WHAT DOES WASHINGTON WANT OF PAKISTAN?




Washington wants Pakistan to do more to fight militants who have crossed into Afghanistan from its territory. The U.S. administration has said getting the policy right in Islamabad is just as important as in Kabul.




British Prime Minister Gordon Brown last week also called on Pakistan to take tougher action against al Qaeda and step up its efforts to track down bin Laden.




U.S. forces have carried out scores of missile strikes by pilotless drones on militant targets on the Pakistani side of the border over the past year and the United States is expected to intensify these attacks. That would increase already high anti-American sentiment in Pakistan.




Pakistan was the main backer of the Taliban until it officially cut ties with them after joining the U.S.-led war on terrorism following the Sept. 11, 2001 al Qaeda attacks on the United States.




Since then it has killed and arrested hundreds of al Qaeda operatives and handed some of them over to the United States and also has launched crackdowns against Taliban militants who want to destabilise Pakistan. However, Pakistani officials have said they have no knowledge of the whereabouts of bin Laden or his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri.




WHAT IS PAKISTAN'S STRATEGY?




Many analysts say Pakistan is reluctant to take on the Afghan Taliban as it might need them to counter Indian influence in Afghanistan in case of a U.S. pullout.




The Taliban are largely drawn from ethnic Pashtun tribes which are the largest ethnic community in Afghanistan and also dominate Pakistan's two provinces on the Afghan border. While Pakistan has cracked down on the Taliban, the U.S. wants it to go after Taliban fighters that cross the border to fight in Afghanistan.




Analysts say Pakistan would also like the Taliban to be included in the Afghan government in an effort to avoid the revival of long-running differences with Afghanistan over the Pashtun territory, known as "Pashtunistan".




The Pashtunistan issue strained relations between the two neighbours in the 1950s and the 1960s, but it faded after Islamists gained influence in the border areas in the 1970s.




(Editing by Michael Georgy and Sanjeev Miglani)