According to Indian sources the militancy in Indian Held Kashmir is down by over 43% and in the recent elections the turnout was over 63% and compared to the previous election the violence during elections declined by 86%. India attributes this positive change to its effective counter insurgency measures, the elimination of militant leaders and the fact that the population is fed up of militancy and longing for normalcy. There is never any mention of the atrocities by Indian Security Forces and what the Kashmiris think of that.
There is no acknowledgment of any steps by Pakistan that may have brought about these changes. After all the cease fire on the Line of Control is holding– though Indians routinely list violations by Pakistan. The Shri Amarnath Land Agitation triggered by India’s policy blunders could have been exploited to create anarchic conditions because it introduced extreme polarization in IHK with extremist Hindu organizations fanning the flames of violence—but this was not done. Indians also lose no opportunity to state that the infrastructure for the support of militancy is in tact in Pakistan and militants trained in ‘training camps’ are ready and waiting–yet no credit to Pakistan for holding these forces in check. Why?
The reason is that any favorable statement about Pakistan and its commitment to settle issues through dialogue would undermine India’s multi front destabilisation campaign against Pakistan and the Indian design of maligning Pakistan internationally. It would also be against India’s deliberate policy of involving Pakistan as a state in the Mumbai terror attacks–though there are no takers for these accusations. To cover up its lack of reciprocity India reasons that it is Pakistan’s economic decline and internal instability that prevents Pakistan from supporting militancy in Kashmir. The fallacy in this argument is that Pakistan committed itself to a dialogue and eschewed the use of force long before its internal problems began.
In fact Indian logic would therefore dictate that Pakistan must be further destabilized internally so that it cannot interfere in IHK. Pakistan has been saying that India is using Afghan territory to spread terror in Swat, FATA, Baluchistan, NWFP and even deeper in Pakistan. Recently there has been a surge in the activity in these regions as India implements its policy of pressure on Pakistan This explains the violent reaction in India to the plain speaking by David Miliband. It also explains India’s rabid opposition to any US special envoy to help resolve the Kashmir dispute because it is the single most important reason for conflict and hostility. India is exploiting the situation for its covert policy against Pakistan.
India’s current policy is short-sighted and expedient. Pakistanis are wondering why they should be making any overture towards India if there is going to be no reciprocity and offers of cooperation are going to be met with hostility. There are also those who argue that asymmetric actions should continue as it is the only way to check Indian ambitions and stop it from using Afghanistan to destabilize Pakistan. There is an opportunity here that is being wasted because India does not have the heart of the big power that it wants to become. India must restart dialogue and begin the process of cooperation in Afghanistan and not destabilize the region for its narrow interests and ambitions.
by Lisa Curtis and James Jay Carafano, Ph.D. WebMemo #2250
Last week, the Press Trust of India reported that defense officials intend to produce a laser capable of shooting down enemy ballistic missiles. The United States is a global leader in directed-energy defenses, including both low and high-powered lasers. American military research is also highly advanced in the technologies of acquiring targets as well as the command, control, and battle management systems necessary to identify and direct weapons to destroy missiles and other targets. In recent years, the United States and India have increased bilateral cooperation in a range of defense, counterterrorism, and homeland security areas. This cooperation is helping increase trust and confidence between the two nations while fostering security, stability, and prosperity in Asia. Working together on directed-energy developments offers a significant opportunity to strengthen the U.S.-India strategic partnership.
India Goes to Light Speed The United States and India share many security concerns, such as the threat of ballistic missiles. V. K. Saraswat of the Defense Research and Development Organization rightly told the Press Times of India: "If you have a laser-based system on an airborne or seaborne platform, it can travel at the speed of light and in a few seconds, [and] we can kill a ballistic missile coming towards [India]." India's interest in developing directed energy defenses is understandable, as lasers have several distinct advantages. Such weapons:
Can use a high-powered beam of energy to disable electrical components or detonate explosives, rendering the attack means such as the warhead or body of a missile useless;
Come with an almost infinite magazine--as long as the weapons have power, they can be recharged and fired again;
Can be aimed effectively using existing target acquisition systems (such as radars) and command and control systems (such as a computer battle management network); and
Can be employed with a minimum of risk toward surrounding civilians, buildings, or vehicles (such as aircraft, cars, and ships).
In addition, lasers are versatile. While high-powered lasers address ballistic missile threats, low-powered lasers have a number of potential security uses, from disabling small boats to downing shoulder-fired missiles to intercepting rockets and mortars. All these uses have application to Indian security concerns.
It is also worth noting that missile defenses, such as high-powered lasers, limit the potential for regional conflict. Missile defenses serve as important deterrents, undermining the effectiveness of enemy threats. They also provide an alternative to massive retaliation in the face of an actual attack. The security provided by missile defenses actually limits the likelihood of armed escalation or an arms race and makes diplomacy more effective. It is no coincidence that the greatest strides in reducing the nuclear arsenals came in the late 1980s, at the same time the U.S. was pursuing the Strategic Defense Initiative. A world with effective missile defenses is safer and more stable.
American Arsenal The United States has significant research and development capabilities regarding the application of lasers for national security uses. The Tactical High-Energy Laser (THEL) is one such experimental system tested by the U.S. Army. Development of the THEL began in 1996 as a joint program between the United States and Israel to develop a laser system capable of shooting down Katyusha rockets, artillery, and mortar shells. The THEL system uses radar to detect and track incoming targets. This information is then transferred to an optical tracking system, which refines the target tracking and positions the beam director. The deuterium fluoride chemical laser then fires, hitting the rocket or shell and causing it to explode far short of its intended target. More recently, the Army has experimented with low-power commercial solid-state lasers.
Another system under development in the United States is the Airborne Laser (ABL). The ABL is a system that uses a megawatt chemical laser mounted on a modified Boeing 747 to shoot down theater ballistic missiles. The megawatt-class laser was first successfully tested at full power in early 2006. The system is still under development.
A Shared Security Interest The American record of military laser research and its many cooperative ventures with friendly and allied powers suggests that a joint U.S.-Indian directed energy program is certainly achievable. The shared interests of both nations in promoting security and stability in Asia also indicates they have a common cause in developing military technologies that would lessen the potential for conflict while effectively countering terrorism. The U.S. should explore opportunities for joint development of cutting edge directed energy technologies--lasers--with India as part of overall missile defense dialogue and deepening of military-to-military ties.
Lisa Curtis is Senior Research Fellow in the Asian Studies Center, and James Jay Carafano, Ph.D., is Assistant Director of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies and Senior Research Fellow in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation.
The Obama administration well appreciates the critical importance of Afghanistan, Pakistan and by extension India to the security of the United States, NATO, Europe and the region. More over, its most senior officials have direct experience and deep understanding of the stakes involved. Vice President Joe Biden chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. National Security Advisor James Jones was the former NATO commander when NATO took command of the International Security Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan. And Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spent four years on the Senate Armed Service Committee addressing these issues.
That said, reality rather than ideology must dominate the policies that the United States, NATO and other friends pursue if success is to be achieved in the region. By success, the current security and economic crises confronting Afghanistan and Pakistan must be contained. That will be a Sisyphean labor even though the conceptual solutions for resolving Pakistan’s crises are not difficult to identify.
Regarding Afghanistan, make no mistake. The West is losing. The insurgencies and instabilities in Afghanistan cannot be defeated by military force. Unless or until the civil sector is reformed—meaning creating jobs, establishing the rule of law, fielding a fair and effective judicial and police system, reducing corruption, stemming the narcotics epidemics and instituting better governance—-Afghanistan will remain a failed state. Tragically, neither NATO nor the European Union has been able to respond to this necessity and the United States has fared no better.
The strategic conclusion is that to bring a measure of stability to Afghanistan, the key is to pacify Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and its North West Frontier Province (NWFP). To accomplish that, Pakistan must resolve its own economic and security crises. Unlike Iraq or Afghanistan, given the proper tools, Pakistan can do the job without the need for foreign forces that would be rejected by the Pakistani people who have a solemn view of sovereignty and will not tolerate its infringement.
Tools in this case mean money and assistance. Pakistan needs an additional $4-5 billion a year above what it is getting from the international community. The bulk of that money would go into its economy that is in dire shape. Beyond the balance of payments deficit that has only been temporarily closed by IMF loans, money for food, energy and critically needed infrastructure development is essential.
A little more than an additional billion dollars a year is needed for Pakistan’s security forces. About $200 million would be used to recruit, train and equip an additional 15,000 police and Frontier Corpsman a year. Unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, Pakistan has the manpower and the infrastructure to accomplish that task. It lacks the money. The remainder would buy the equipment the Army desperately needs to fight and win the counterinsurgencies in FATA and NWFP including more helicopters, surveillance and electronic systems, precision guided weapons and force protection gear for its troops, trucks and bases as well as training to maintain this equipment.
But huge roadblocks impede providing Pakistan the tools to let them do the job. In the midst of the worst economic implosion since the great depression, who can afford the increased funding? Given Pakistan’s history, guarantees are vital to ensuring the proper use of that money with full oversight and transparency. Unfortunately, the prior government of Pervez Musharraf chose to spend over 2/3 of America’s $10 billion in total coalition support funding intended for the Pakistani army on other items without informing anyone–a revelation unlikely to go down well in Washington.
To overcome these obstacles, the new Pakistani government is developing strategies to cope with the economic and security crises and will soon take them on the road. Those strategies must answer the tough questions that will be raised by skeptical friends who, while understanding the criticality of succeeding in the region, need reassurances that future monies will be worth the investment and well spent. And only Pakistan can make those guarantees work.
Two recommendations are vital if Pakistan is to succeed. First, in addition to creating workable economic and security strategies, the Pakistani government must demonstrate that it is capable of executing them. That means it needs to coordinate far better both its policies and the means to articulate the message. Second, the West must recognize that Pakistan is the key to success in the region and thus to safeguarding our security in the process. Unlike global bailouts for the financial systems that total trillions and stimulative packages of about the same level, Pakistan can succeed with a mere fraction of that largesse. Still, this will be a very tough sell.
To paraphrase Churchill, if we are to succeed, “give Pakistan the tools and Pakistan can do the job.”
Harlan Ullman is senior advisor to The Atlantic Council in Washington, DC and to US European Command. He is a frequent visitor to Pakistan.
A nine-year-old tribal girl in eastern India has married a stray dog as part of a ritual to ward off an “evil spell” on her, Indian newspapers have reported.
The girl promised to “take care of the dog”
The girl, Karnamoni Handsa, had to be married quickly because she had a tooth rooted to her upper gum, which is considered a bad omen by her Santhal tribe in the remote village of Khanyhan, about 60 kilometres (37 miles) from Calcutta.
“Members of the village jury asked us to get her married to a dog or to face the bad omen,” the girl’s father was quoted as saying by the AFP news agency.
The tribe elders said the marriage would not affect the girl’s life, and that she would be free to marry again later and did not need to divorce the dog.
“It will not spoil her future. We will marry her off to eligible bachelor when she grows up,” the girl’s mother told AFP.
‘No regret’
The wedding - which took place on 11 June - was attended by more than 100 guests, who danced to the beating of drums and drank home-made liquor.
“I have no regret in marrying the dog Bacchan. I am fond of the dog who moves around our locality,” the girl told the AFP.
“Bacchan is a stray dog who survives on left-overs. I will take care of the dog,” she added.
Indian newspapers reported that local police officials had ordered an inquiry into the incident.
The Santhals - most of whom are sharecroppers - are a large tribe living in the states of West Bengal and neighbouring Bihar and Jharkhand.
The US has a new President. He has appointed a special envoy for Afghanistan-Pakistan. US has decided to increase non-military aid to Pakistan but linked to Pakistan’s management of its border situation with Afghanistan. The US is telling Pakistan that it will do more if Pakistan does more.
Russia has chosen this time to respond to President Karzai’s November 2008 request for support. The Russian President has indicated willingness for broad support and cooperation in specific areas. The US CENTCOM is looking for alternative supply routes to Afghanistan because the best and most direct route through Pakistan is not reliable. The only alternative route is through Russia or the Central Asian States—an area of Russian interest and influence. The EU faced gas supply interruption through Ukraine recently. Russia has linkages with the former Northern Alliance that is now the mainstay of the US backed government in Afghanistan. Russia is resurgent and asserting itself in its former sphere of influence---that included Iran.
India is not amused over recent references to Kashmir by the US and more recently by the British Foreign Secretary. India also does not like the fact that there is general acceptance that Pakistan as a state was not involved in the Mumbai terror. India wants the stand-off with Pakistan to continue. India fears more such attacks if Pakistan does not move against non-state actors and the infrastructure that supports them. India says it has provided evidence. Pakistan calls it information but has promised to investigate. The dialogue between the two countries has been put on hold by India. India has general elections this year.
Pakistan faces an insurgency in its west that has its roots and backing in Southern Afghanistan but an agenda of its own. Pakistan is carrying out determined military action but lacks a full spectrum counterinsurgency strategy. Pakistan thinks India and the Afghan government are in cahoots to destabilize Pakistan and the US is looking the other way. Pakistan has internal stability and political problems. Pakistan faces a difficult economic situation. Pakistan does not want a confrontation with India and it wants Afghanistan to stabilize---it offers cooperation and joint investigations. Pakistan is alive to the geopolitical and geostrategic realities of its location---especially with reference to Russia and China.
2009 will be a busy and eventful year in greater South Asia.
NATO chief Jaap de Hoop Scheffer has cast off his politeness. Although the alliance is in Afghanistan at the invitation of its President Hamid Karzai, widespread corruption within the administration led Mr de Hoop Scheffer to publicly criticise the Kabul government in an opinion piece in the Washington Post. Behind the scenes discussions with the president about his weak administration are said to have been going on for much longer.
When visiting the country, corruption and an inefficient Afghan government are impossible to escape. Some are just relatively innocent incidents, like my interpreter having to pay substantial bribes to renew his driving licence, hotel owners receiving annoying visits by fake tax inspectors, students whose permission to go and study in India has been "sold on".
A stronger signal about Afghanistan's disturbed society came from a secret service director and good friend of Mr Karzai, who warned me not to go out onto the streets of Kabul. Taking a taxi together with my interpreter was out of the question. He said at the time, it was not just the Taliban that formed the problem; "our own police are very dangerous too."
It is assumed all too easily that the Taliban are behind attacks, kidnappings or roadside bombings. But things are more complicated that that. Government appointments make the administration weak, unrealiable and unsafe. In the southern provinces of Kandahar, Helmand and Uruzgan, figureheads are in power who have been providing support to Mr Karzai since 2001. NATO appears incapable of acting against them. Mr Karzai is not selecting these men for their education or knowledge; in this complicated tribal society other factors are at play.
Begging Army leaders and diplomats regularly visit the palace to plead for certain appointments to be cancelled or for corrupt Afghan officials to be sacked. At night, these very officals pay a visit to the president. He shares a past with them or even a family relationship. Or he may need their help to ward off hostile groups or factions.
Outright shouting matches in the palace are the result of this tussling about positions, I have been told. The president is "wheeling and dealing", ostensibly firing a crony who is then allowed to continue his shady work away from the limelight. Mr Karzai appears to be governing from one day to another, for the sake of his mere survival.
Camp Holland A Dutch diplomat in Camp Holland told me that the Netherlands, a NATO member, is simply waiting for the appointment of a new president. "Only then will something change in the area." The Dutch have repeatedly criticised Uruzgan's local Education Minister, Mualim Rachmatullah. He has been in power in Uruzgan since Mr Karzai's reign and is likely to remain there.
The Dutch I spoke to say he is a crook: you cannot conclude any agreements with him, the money is disappearing, and the man is mainly focused on his own building companies, people in Camp Holland have told me. The Dutch want to build schools in Uruzgan but are frustrated by the unreliable education minister, who continues to enjoy Mr Karzai's support.
NATO will go on supporting Mr Karzai, but is hoping that the president will not avoid making political choices. Some Afghans in Tarin Kowt have had enough. They are facing an impossible choice given the increasing hostility towards the government, which the Taliban are quick to exploit. One man who supported President Karzai when he came to power, is desperate:
"Is there a third way? Something totally new, no Karzai, no Taliban, but something else?"
The book 'Expedition Uruzgan, Hamid Karzai's road to the palace' by Bette Dam will be published early this year (in Dutch).
Dubai: It's the great escape by Indians whove hit the dead-end in Dubai. Local police have found at least 3,000 automobiles - sedans, SUVs, regulars - abandoned outside Dubai International Airport in the last four months. Police say most of the vehicles had keys in the ignition, a clear sign they were left behind by owners in a hurry to take flight. The global economic crisis has brought Dubai's economic progress, mirrored by its soaring towers and luxurious resorts, to a stuttering halt. Several people have been laid off in the past months after the realty boom started unraveling. On the night of December 31, 2008 alone more than 80 vehicles were found at the airport. "Sixty cars were seized on the first day of this year," director general of Airport Security, Mohammed Bin Thani, told DNA over the phone. On the same day, deputy director of traffic, colonel Saif Mohair Al Mazroui, said they seized 22 cars abandoned at a prohibited area in the airport. Faced with a cash crunch and a bleak future ahead, there were no goodbyes for the migrants - overwhelmingly South Asian's, mostly Indians - just a quiet abandoning of the family car at the airport and other places. While 2,500 vehicles have been found dumped in the past four months outside Terminal III, which caters to all global airlines, Terminal II, which is only used by Emirates Airlines, had 160 cars during the same period. "The construction and real estate industry has been hit following the global slowdown and the direct fallout is that professionals working in the realty industry are rapidly losing their jobs," said a senior media professional, in-charge of a realty supplement in Dubai. "In fact, my weekly real estate supplement usually had 60% advertisement and ran into 300-odd pages. In the last seven weeks, its down to 80 pages and with fewer advertisments," he added. Mumbai resident D Nair (name changed) had been living in a plush highrise in Sharjah for the past four years. However, the script went horribly wrong when his contract was terminated. Nair used all his credit cards to their maximum limit, shopping for people back home. He then discarded his Honda Accord before returning to India for good. Nair, who stays in a rented apartment in Navi Mumbai today, has a Rs15 lakh loan with a Dubai bank. Another such victim of the meltdown said he bid goodbye to his car in a small bylane near the airport and hailed a cab. "I was scared because a number of us were doing the same and did not want to be questioned by the police. There was no way I could afford to pay the EMI of 1100 Dhirams for my Ford Focus," he told DNA on condition of anonymity. When contacted, the dealer for Asgar Ali cars in Sharjah said, "We are helpless and do not know how to tackle this issue. A large number of such owners are from Indian, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and other South Asian countries."
NEW DELHI: For all its aspirations about becoming a superpower, India continues to fumble in formulating strategic plans to systematically build the country's military "capabilities" in tune with its geopolitical objectives.
For one, the government is yet to finalise the 11th Defence Plan (2007-2012) due to wrangling between the finance and defence ministries. For another, similar is the fate of the much-touted LTIPP-2007-2022 (long-term integrated perspective plan) till now, say sources.
"Successive governments have failed to formulate budgetary plans with a concrete strategic underpinning," said a top official. India does spend a lot on arms deals but it happens in a haphazard manner, without clear prioritisation, and is dogged by huge delays.
India's defence expenditure, of course, has also fallen below 2% of its GDP for the first time in decades this fiscal despite military experts demanding at least 3%. Even as UPA government now belatedly fast-tracks procurement of military hardware and software in wake of 26/11, here's a look at some of the gaps in military capabilities:
Nuclear Deterrence: India has Agni missiles as well as fighters to deliver nukes but no nuclear-powered submarines armed with nuclear-tipped missiles. The "nuclear triad" is still some four years away from completion, with the 25-year-old indigenous programme to build nuclear subs under the ATV (advanced technology vessel) project yet to come to fruition.
Submarines: To China's 57 attack submarines and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, India has just 16 aging diesel-electric submarines, with huge serviceability problems. Only half of Navy's 10 Russian Kilo-class, four German HDW and two virtually-obsolete Foxtrot submarines are operationally available. The Rs 18,798-crore Scorpene project will deliver six submarines only between 2012 and 2017. Pakistan, meanwhile, is building its submarine arm, inducting three French Agosta-90B vessels.
Fighters: Airpower may be decisive during wars but IAF continues to grapple with a free-fall in its fighter squadrons, down to 32 from its sanctioned strength of 39.5. Though 44 squadrons are needed to meet "a full conflict" with Pakistan, while maintaining "a dissuasive posture" against China, IAF will reach the 39.5 mark only by 2017. Delays in both the indigenous Tejas Light Combat Aircraft as well as the procurement process for 126 new multi-role combat fighters in the $10.4 billion project has led to this situation.
Artillery: The Bofors ghost has derailed Army's artillery modernisation plan, valued to be well over Rs 15,000 crore. There has been no induction of big guns since the 1986 procurement of 410 Bofors 155mm/39-calibre howitzers. Army wants to induct 400 155mm/52-calibre towed guns, with another 1,100 of them to be manufactured indigenously, in a Rs 8,000-crore project; 180 wheeled self-propelled howitzers for around Rs 4,700 crore; 140 air-mobile ultra-light howitzers for around Rs 2,900 crore.
Night-Fighting: Army, in particular, requires a strong dose of third-generation thermal imaging sights and night-vision devices. It wants to equip all its tanks, which include 1,200 T-72 tanks, with solid NF capabilities by around 2010-2011.
Aircraft Carriers: Navy has long demanded three carriers but it does not have even one operating at present since the ageing 28,000-tonne INS Viraat is currently undergoing another life-extension refit to ensure it can run for five more years.
Indian army 'backed out' of Pakistan attack
Siddharth Srivastava | Asia Times
NEW DELHI - Reluctance for battle by an ill-prepared army could have resulted in India not launching an attack on Pakistan in the aftermath of the Pakistan-linked terror attack in the Indian city of Mumbai on November 26 in which nearly 200 people died.
High-level government sources have told Asia Times Online that army commanders impressed on the political leadership in New Delhi that an inadequate and obsolete arsenal at their disposal mitigated against an all-out war.
The navy and air force, however, had given the government the go-ahead about their preparedness to carry out an attack and repulse any retaliation from Pakistan.
Over the past few weeks, it has become increasingly apparent from top officials in the know that the closed-door meetings of top military commanders and political leaders discussed the poor state of the armory (both ammunition and artillery), and that this tilted the balance in favor of not striking at Pakistan.
According to senior officials, following the attack on Mumbai by 10 militants linked to Pakistan, India's top leadership looked at two options closely - war and hot pursuit.
Largely for the reasons cited above, the notion of an all-out war was rejected. Hot pursuit, however, remains very much on the table.
The government sources say that a framework for covert operations is being put in place, although India will continue to deny such actions. Crack naval, air and army forces backed by federal intelligence agencies will be involved. The target areas will be Pakistan-administered Kashmir and areas along the Punjab, such as Multan, where some of the Mumbai attackers are believed to have been recruited.
The coastal belt from the southern port city of Karachi to Gwadar in Balochistan province will also be under active Indian surveillance.
Thumbs down to war
Following the Mumbai attack, New Delhi's inclination was to launch a quick strike against Pakistan to impress domestic opinion, and then be prepared for a short war, given the pressures that would be exercised by international powers for a ceasefire to prevent nuclear war breaking out.
The expectation of New Delhi was that the war would go beyond the traditional skirmishes involving artillery fire that take place at the Kashmir border, essentially to check infiltration by militants, or the brief but bloody exchanges at Kargil in 1999.
It was in this context that the army made it apparent that it was not equipped to fight such a war, given the military's presence along the eastern Chinese borders, and that India was at risk of ceding territory should an instant ceasefire be brokered with Pakistan.
This would have been highly embarrassing, not to mention political suicide for the Congress-led government in an election year. So instead, New Delhi restricted itself to a strident diplomatic offensive that continues to date, and the option of hot pursuit.
The air force, on the other hand, was confident that it was prepared to take on the first retaliatory action by Pakistan, expected at forward air force bases along India's borders in Rajasthan, Gujarat and Indian-administered Kashmir. The role of the navy in the operations was not clearly defined, but it was to cover from the Arabian Sea.
Not ready to fight
Various experts, former generals and independent reports have voiced concern over the past few years about the state of preparedness of the Indian army.
For example, the Bofors gun scandal of the 1980s stymied the army's artillery modernization plan, with no induction of powerful guns since the 1986 purchase of 410 Bofors 155mm/39-caliber howitzers. The army has been trying to introduce 400 such guns from abroad and another 1,100 manufactured domestically, without success.
The latest report by the independent Comptroller and Auditor General said the state's production of 23mm ammunition for Shilka anti-aircraft cannons and 30mm guns mounted on infantry combat vehicles lacked quality. Further, supply was nearly 35% short of requirements.
India's huge tank fleet is in bad shape due to a shortage of Russian spare parts, while indigenous efforts, such as the main battle tank Arjun, have failed.
Signs of trouble emerged during the Kargil war when it was revealed that India's defense forces were dealing with acute shortages in every sphere.
In remarks that underscored the problems, the then-army chief, V P Malik, said his forces would make do with whatever was in hand, given the fears of a full-scale war that was eventually avoided due to pressure by America, then under president Bill Clinton.
The Kargil review committee report noted, "The heavy involvement of the army in counter-insurgency operations cannot but affect its preparedness for its primary role, which is to defend the country against external aggression."
Although there have been attempts to hasten India's overall defense modernization program, estimated at over US$50 billion over the next five years, gaping holes need to be plugged, including corruption and massive delays in the defense procurement processes.
India's defense expenditure has dipped below 2% of gross domestic product for the first time in decades, despite experts pegging 3% as adequate.
Other defense arms are in dire need of enhancement. Fighter jet squadrons are much below required strength, while the bidding process for medium fighter planes has only just begun and may take a few years to complete.
Meanwhile, the prospects of an India-Pakistan conflict are not over. India's army chief, General Deepak Kapoor, said last week that Pakistan had redeployed troops from its Afghan border to the western frontier with India. "The Indian army has factored this in its planning," Kapoor said.
Siddharth Srivastava is a New Delhi-based journalist. He can be reached at sidsri@yahoo.com.
Before Pakistan got the Mumbai Dossier from India the general perception was that the Mumbai attack was a meticulously planned operation and that none except professionals had anything to do with it. After all ten persons attacking multiple targets to bring a massive city to a halt and put a country into a tailspin had to be very special people trained and launched by even more special people. So when the Indian finger pointed in the only direction it can point to –Pakistan and its military and ISI—there were some takers.
After the Mumbai dossier has been made public people are confused. The dossier details a badly botched operation that succeeded only because of the incompetence and many lapses of the Indians themselves. The attackers look like complete nincompoops. They were carrying pickle, shaving cream and other toiletries all made in Pakistan. Even the dinghy engine had the Pakistani manufacturers name in plain view. These people called numbers in Pakistan to get instructions at every single step lest they be confused with anyone except a Pakistani. One attacker miraculously survived to tell the tale and has been accepted as a Pakistani after an investigation. Pakistan is following up on the information provided by this survivor even though he obviously gave it under extreme interrogation.
The dossier raises several questions. What was the aim of the attack—hostage taking, suicide bombing or random killing? The attackers seem to have done a bit of all these without any conclusive results. What was the purpose of the operation? Mayhem or terror or economic destruction or some kind of message to meet their demands---again they failed on many counts. Why leave a clear trail pointing at Pakistan with planted items? No explanation answers this question except that they wanted India-Pakistan relations put on the previous hostility track and perhaps lead to a conflict situation. Is it in Pakistan’s interest to do any of these things? Obviously not---Pakistan would not want a problem with India because of the threat across its western borders and the fact that Pakistan has been totally committed to the composite dialogue with India. Who would want deterioration in the India-Pakistan situation? Non-state actors within India and Pakistan using local infrastructures.
The situation calls for a joint investigation and a resumption of dialogue between India and Pakistan. The pre-condition can be that the purpose will be to find the planners, perpetrators and their collaborators so that they can be brought to justice. Blame, pressure and threats will not bring closure—it can create complications and lead to unpredictable consequences. The world has accepted that Pakistan as a state is not involved. Pakistan has offered joint investigation. Pakistan is also investigating and taking action. India needs to reciprocate.
Taiwan’s election results raise Chinese expectations
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Author: Sheryn Lee, ANU On 14 January, Taiwan’s incumbent president, Ma
Ying-jeou, won a second term in office, obtaining 51.6 per cent of the
popular vote...
For Indian troops in IHK suicide is a common end
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*Tacstrat*
A recent report issued by the Indian Defence Ministry has indicated that
around 780 Indian troops have committed suicide since 2005 in Indian ...
For Indian troops in IHK suicide is a common end
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Tacstrat A recent report issued by the Indian Defence Ministry has
indicated that around 780 Indian troops have committed suicide since 2005
in Indian Held...
The Dis-Integration of Europe
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One by one, the leaders of Europe's three biggest immigration destinations
have stepped up to solemnly repudiate a policy that has long ceased to
exist. ...
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