2010

Spearhead Research Analysis - 06.01.10

2010 started badly with horrendous attacks---the attack on a Shia sect mourning procession and follow up arson attacks in Karachi and a suicide bombing attack on a village volley ball match in the western area. There have also been four drone attacks in the North Waziristan area of FATA-in fact the attack on the volley ball match in Lakki Marwat that killed over 90 was claimed by the Taleban as reprisal for the drone strikes. The Karachi attack now determined to be a planted bomb with planned destruction of shops and markets is still being investigated because confusion surrounds the whole incident.




Afghanistan saw stepped up violence with US soldiers, Canadian soldiers and contractors, a Canadian journalist and CIA personnel killed in various attacks---the boldest being on the base where the CIA people apparently worked. There were also reports of Taleban presence and some degree of control in 33 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces. There is stepped up high level contact between US and Pakistan as the US prepares for the first 'surge' into Helmand and Kandahar provinces bordering Pakistan. The US has also vowed revenge for the killing of its CIA personnel with finger pointing at the 'Haqqani network of Afghan Taleban. Karzai's cabinet nominees have fared badly leaving a question mark over the future effectiveness of his administration and the build up of Afghan security capacity.




The Indian Army Chief has made waves again by stating that India was preparing for a two front war against China and Pakistan and by confirming India's version of the 'blitzkrieg'---the 'cold start' doctrine. Earlier he had stated that India could fight a limited war with Pakistan under a 'nuclear overhang'. He could have been signaling India's force development strategy except that India has a strong tradition of civilian control and Army Chiefs have rarely been the final word on policy. Predictably there has been reaction from Pakistan and if what the India's Army Chief has said is true then 2010 will not see dialogue that leads to peace regardless of what well meaning peace lovers in India and Pakistan may do. Pakistan will no doubt evolve a 'hot end' strategy in response to 'cold start'. It is for India's political leadership to set a more balancing tone for the future of India-Pakistan relations. So far this has not happened.




Iran has had violent street dissent indicating that there is simmering violence that can be periodically stoked to create problems. The Iranian government quickly brought the situation under control signaling its capacity and resolve.




The more important issue is the economic outlook in 2010. The US faces domestic pressures from growing unemployment and increasing number of people living on food stamps. There are questions on the trillions being spent on the US wars in Muslim nations. India is set to have good economic growth but there is grinding poverty, no prospect of inclusive growth and Maoist and other insurgencies in over 220 districts of 20 states. Pakistan's economic growth is hampered by internal security problems and political instability. These trends and the rivers behind these trends will determine policies as 2010 gets under way.