BIG TALK

By Ghalib Sultan

There is the story of a Red Indian Chief who came to a doctor complaining of constipation-'Big Chief, no s-t' he said. The doctor gave him a pill but the Chief was back the next day, 'Big Chief, no s-t". The doctor gave him two pills but was back again with the same words. Fed up the doctor gave him the whole bottle. Next day the Chief's assistant turned up to tell the doctor-'Big s-t, No Chief'. The lesson is that Chiefs should be careful of what they say.

Usually when Chiefs-of the military kind---start feeling their oats they start thinking and talking of war. They see visions of glory and the brightness of that vision shuts out the reality of the poverty and misery around them. In the eagerness to use their shiny new toys they forget that human beings will die using those toys and that the result will be more misery and poverty than before. Their dictum is that if you have superior power you must use it. This is what makes them talk of 'limited war under a nuclear overhang'-war just short of the others sides threshold, just enough to punish but not cripple. This may seem sound notionally but the danger of the overhang falling on you accidentally or deliberately will be there and nothing can make that go away.

The other idea is the 'cold start' strategy. Sudden swift punitive strikes using land air or naval forces or all three and then leaving the option of retaliating and escalating to the other side---the one on the wrong side of conventional balance. Here the danger is that the other side will prepare a reception for your cold start and you may end up doing the escalation just to save face-after all a stand-off is really a defeat for a nuclear weapons state with conventional superiority and big power ambitions. The nuclear overhang again becomes relevant as the stakes start rising.

If you are preparing for a two front war then you are either anticipating it because of what you plan to do on one front or, incredible as this may sound, you are actually contemplating opening both fronts and finally you may be petrified that you will be forced to defend on two fronts. All these scenarios involve premeditated deliberate aggressive actions---something unthinkable in today's economy focused and globally networked world especially among nuclear weapon states. So why talk irresponsibly?

Is there a lesson here? Yes there is. Think before you speak and do not indulge in loud thinking. If you are the Chief in a stable democracy then do not assert yourself in policy domains except to give input. Indians outnumber Big Chiefs because the Chiefs are supposed to be mature and far thinking and there are not too many of this kind available. Chiefs with big sticks talk softly. Chiefs with little sticks but who think they have big sticks talk big. Chiefs with little sticks who know they have little sticks talk less and do more.