Pakistan: Expanding Operations into North Waziristan?

A Pakistani soldier standing guard at a base in Miran Shah in Pakistan's North Waziristan on Feb. 17, 2007

Summary

Pakistani forces launched a rare attack in the North Waziristan region in the country's northwestern tribal belt Jan. 22. The strike, which coincides with U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates' visit to the country, is extremely limited in scope. Islamabad is trying to signal to Washington that it could cooperate against Islamist militants fighting in Afghanistan while trying not to upset its domestic security strategy.

Analysis

Pakistani forces launched a rare attack in the North Waziristan region in the country's northwestern tribal belt Jan. 22. Details are sketchy, but it appears that a helicopter gunship - possibly supported by ground forces - fired on a militant target (being reported as either a facility belonging to the militant group Tablighi Jamaat, a vehicle or both) on the outskirts of Miran Shah, North Waziristan's main city. Two or three militants - most likely linked to Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) - were killed after a firefight with Pakistani forces. The raid occurred a day after U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates arrived in Pakistan. Before his arrival, Gates had asked Pakistan to expand its fight against jihadists fighting in Afghanistan and specifically mentioned that he would take up the issue of North Waziristan with the Pakistani military and government.

(click here to enlarge image)

Pakistani forces have been concentrating their energy on clearing and holding territory in South Waziristan since launching an operation there in October 2009. On Jan. 21, Pakistani military spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas emphasized that, despite U.S. insistence that the Pakistanis do more to counter the Taliban and al Qaeda presence in their country, the military had no plans for operations beyond their current engagements in the next six to 12 months. There is no indication, then, that the Jan. 22 raid is part of a larger operation. The Pakistani military is capable of conducting limited raids like this one across the country, and often does. The raid is unusual because the Pakistanis have largely avoided conducting raids on the ground in North Waziristan because of neutrality agreements between the military and the militant outfit of Hafiz Gul Bahadur. Pakistan is also intent on maintaining good relations with the North Waziristan-based Afghan Taliban network led by Sirajuddin Haqqani, who is focused on operating in Afghanistan and can be a tool for Pakistan there. However, either U.S.-operated unmanned aerial vehicles or the Pakistani air force has targeted the region from the air as TTP militants have migrated there under pressure from the ongoing operation in South Waziristan.

There are several reasons why the Pakistanis chose to engage these militants in closer combat than more usual air strikes. First, such combat allows the military to collect intelligence from the scene that would have been destroyed in a bombing. Second, this target was in an urban area and, given the higher risk of collateral damage from an air strike, the use of helicopter gunships or ground forces would reduce the risk of killing nearby civilians. The timing of the raid is a signal to Washington that Pakistan will cooperate in the counterjihadist mission, but not within the scope that Washington might expect.

Though limited in scope, the North Waziristan strike is a risky move for the Pakistanis. First, militants could use this assault on Bahadur's territory to convince the fickle militant to cooperate against the Pakistani state. Furthermore, the establishment of an operational capability to conduct raids in North Waziristan - no matter how isolated they may be - combined with a reaction from militants there raises the likelihood that Pakistan could get dragged into a fight in North Waziristan that it does not want to get involved in - at least not right now.