Mid Term Elections

By Arif Nizami

The no show of the Punjab chief minister Mian Shahbaz Sharif at a recent meeting held at the Presidency to decide the fate of the Local bodies is another indication of the fast deteriorating relations between the PPP and the PML-N. While the chief ministers of three provinces were present coalation partner in Punjab Mian Shabaz Sharif was not even invited.

It is obvious that the PPP does not approve the Punjab Government's move to delay the local bodies elections and in the interim run local governments' affairs through bureaucrats. It fears that the Punjab Government has its eyes set on the huge funds in the Nazims kitty. The other day, senior minister Punjab Raja Riaz bitterly complained to the Chief Minister of consistently being kept out decsion making. Mian Shahbaz Sharif was kind enough to form a committee to look into the complaints of the PPP ministers.

The rumpus created in the aftermath of the attack on Awami Muslim League chief Sheikh Rashid Ahmed who is contesting a by-election from Rawalpindi, a constituency considered to be a bastion of the PML-N, is another indication of the deteriorating environment. Fishing in troubled waters, Governor Punjab Salman Taseer who has distinguished himself for making acerbic attacks on the Sharifs rushed to Lal Haveli the abode of Sheeda Tulli the very next day. The Chief Minister however did not find it appropriate to visit Rashid, a former colleague and party stalwart.

While the PPP and PML-N is slugging it out in the media the PML-N supremo Mian Nawaz Sharif is pretending to be above the fray. Ensconced mostly in his Raiwind estate he blows hot and cold in his occasional and far apart forays in active politics. The other day while in Bahawalpur en route to a grand shikar he announced that his party would stage another long march if the Supreme Court verdict on the NRO were not implemented in letter and spirit. He also demanded that tainted federal ministers should quit the cabinet.

While claiming on one hand that he is not in favour of rocking the boat and wants to strengthen the system, Mian Sahib is rather reluctant to enter the corridors of the National Assembly and play his role as leader of the opposition. He would rather relax and lead a lifestyle more akin to a Saudi prince than an active grass roots politician. Predictably he has opted out of contesting the by election from his home constituency in Lahore due next month.

According to some political pundits this benign neglect on part of Mian Nawaz Sharif emanates from a cynical calculation that Zardari regime is going to crumble under its own weight of incompetence and owing to its troubles with the ubiquitous Establishment and the Apex court. Hence the best policy under the circumstances will be to wait it out for mid term elections to usher the PML-N back in power.

Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has been confiding with his friends that if President Zardari was hounded out of office he would quit and sit in the opposition instead of becoming a Shaukat Aziz or a Jamali. If such an eventuality, the PML-N has decided that it will not even try forming a government with the support of ninety odd members of the National Assembly. As no party will be in a position to form a government, this move will automatically precipitate mid-term elections.

The only flaw in this strategy is that it is based upon too many ifs and buts. First of all despite being beleaguered and in all kinds of troubles it is not axiomatic that President Zardari will be forced to quit. Secondly, even if that happens what is the guarantee that mid-term elections will take place? And finally, if mid term elections do take place how can the PML-N be so sure of winning them and be able to form a government solo?

If recent by-elections in Manshera are an indication, the PML-N emerged as a poor third in the results. A constituency long considered a safe haven for the party took solace from the fact that it managed to beat the PPP that came fourth in the race. Sheikh Rashid being a political turncoat lost from this Rawalpindi constituency. But in the by election he is giving the PML-N candidate a run for his money.

Despite being in complete control in Punjab, the PML-N led government in the province is not exactly a bastion of good governance. According to a recently released World Bank report the fiscal health of the province is deteriorating fast .The report strongly recommends that the provincial government needs to take urgent measures to reverse this alarming trend with a view to minimizing non-development expenditure and making concerted efforts to generate own-source revenue.

The internal report laments that the province that had cash balances with the State Bank amounting to Rs 43 billion by end June 2008, now owes the Bank Rs 62 billion. It further accuses the Punjab Government of 'fiscal imprudence as a result of which provincial finances that were well managed since 1997 have come under a lot of pressure.

Has Mian Shahbaz Sharif, a role model for good governance in his previous stint has lost his magic touch or is it the of dint of circumstances which have led to present state of affairs? Flawed schemes like 'sasti roti' leading to heavy subsidies on wheat flour and expenditure on mega projects that were originally based upon public-private partnership have virtually brought the province to financial ruin.

Perhaps the way forward for the ruling PML-N in Punjab would have been to stick to its original constituency instead of dabbling in populist schemes which were the hallmark of Zulfiquar Ali Bhutto's PPP in the '70s. Demolishing high-rise buildings in Lahore under whatever pretext is a flawed policy that not only gives the provincial metropolis an ugly look, it hurts the very constituency that is PML-N's traditional support base.

Ironically the replacement of Chief Secretary Javed Mehmood by Tariq Khosa, an able bureaucrat, will do the province some good. Administration under the ousted chief secretary was an unmitigated disaster marred by frequent reshuffling of bureaucrats resulting in lowering of morale and espirit de corps amongst the civil servants.

In this backdrop the PML-N should make a concerted effort to make the system work smoothly instead of wishing for divine intervention to bring them into power. No doubt it takes two to tango and being the ruling party the onus is primarily on the PPP led coalation to make a concerted effort to bring all stakeholders on board.

The Prime Minister while addressing his parliamentary party's meeting the other day duly acknowledged the right of the opposition to criticize and declared that he would happily entertain any strategy presented by the opposition. Being a natural consensus builder, he has an excellent rapport with all political forces in the country including the Sharifs.

However he has to walk the talk by advising his party colleagues including the Punjab Governor to follow the same agenda of live and let live. The much delayed repeal of the seventeenth amendment should take place sooner than later as a wide consensus on virtually all matters relating to the proposed eighteenth amendment already exists in the Parliament

The PML-N should also reconsider its policy of non -cooperation with the PPP led government. By avoiding to give proper protocol to President Zardari on his last visit to Lahore the Sharifs ill served the cause of democracy. No matter how much they may detest the PPP and Zardari style of politics they cannot wish their political opponents away. The PML-N maintains its support base is central Punjab whereas rural Sindh remains the bastion of the PPP.

Days of 'bhari mandate' are a thing of the past and hence come what may, any future dispensation based upon elections will be a coalation government. Instead of perusing a divisive agenda, there is need for all major parties to practice consensus politics. Meanwhile Mian Shahbaz Sharif should take a good look at the manner in which Punjab has been run in the past two years. He is capable and hardworking. All he needs is to get his old mojo back.

Email : arifn51@hotmail.com