Pakistan: Taliban Rebels Lose Another Leader?

Stratfor

NASEER MEHSUD/AFP/Getty Images


Tehrik-i-Taliban leader Hakeemullah Mehsud (L) and his deputy, Wali-ur-Rehman (R), in South Waziristan on Oct. 4, 2009

Summary

Hakeemullah Mehsud, the leader of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), has reportedly died after succumbing to wounds sustained in a mid-January U.S. unmanned aerial vehicle strike. If the reports of Mehsud's death are accurate, it will be the second time in six months that a TTP leader has been eliminated, which will pose a significant challenge to the group's operational abilities.

Analysis

Confusion persisted Feb. 1 regarding the fate of Hakeemullah Mehsud, the leader of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the country's main Taliban militant group. Reports indicated that Mehsud had succumbed to wounds initially suffered in a U.S. unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) strike on Jan. 14. The TTP has denied that Mehsud was killed as a result of the attack, as it did when TTP founder Baitullah Mehsud (Hakeemullah's predecessor) was killed in an Aug. 5 UAV strike, and has vowed to deliver proof that Hakeemullah is alive.

For several weeks, the TTP issued denials that Baitullah had been killed before acknowledging that he had indeed been wounded, and then finally admitting that he had in fact been killed. Until that point, the only official word on Baitullah's death had come from Pakistani and American authorities, and it is thus likely that it will be some time before the TTP confirms if Hakeemullah went the way of his former boss.

If and when it is established that Hakeemullah is dead, it will have a significant impact on the group's operational abilities. Losing both the founder and the group's most important field commander in the span of six months are not minor blows.

Before Baitullah was eliminated, the group's operational tempo had declined for a few months - a situation that continued for another two months after his death. The group struck back with great ferocity during the last few months of 2009, engaging in unprecedented attacks in terms of target set and geography. During this time, the TTP was forced out of its main sanctuary in South Waziristan as a result of the Pakistani Army's offensive there, which could explain why the group has entered another largely dormant phase since the Dec. 15 attack in Dera Ghazi Khan. The only significant TTP attack since that date was staged in Karachi during the Muslim holy day of Ashura, an isolated incident by the group, which was operating in a new area.

Now, during this period of reorientation following the ouster of the TTP from its old base of operations, the group has reportedly lost its second leader.

In the event that Hakeemullah is truly dead, the group is unlikely to go through the power struggle it experienced following Baitullah's death, as the TTP founder had not designated a clear successor. Hakeemullah, however, has a deputy, Wali-ur-Rehman, who is expected to take over so the group could be spared the internal jockeying for power, though factionalism cannot be ruled out. It should be noted that Wali-ur-Rehman is a political leader and lacks the operational experience of Hakeemullah, who ran the largest regional command in the central part of the tribal belt before becoming the leader of the group. This could also impact the group's abilities to wage war against the Pakistani state.

The TTP may experience a certain drop in its capabilities if reports of Hakeemullah's death are accurate, but this does not mean the group will be incapable of recovering, and it may in fact decide to increase the number of attacks it stages, as it did after finding its footing following Baitullah's death. The next phases will be very telling in terms of how much degradation it has suffered.