Water Security on the Sub-Continent - The Implications of the Indus Treaty

By Alexandra Mahler Haug

Executive Summary

- One point of strength in the tenuous relationship between India and Pakistan has been the Indus Water Treaty, which allocates each country's share of water derived from shared rivers.

- However, if the Indus Water Treaty is not reexamined and perhaps redrawn in light of recent-and projected continuing-environmental change, it could become another fierce point of contention for the two nations, one that threatens the very existence of millions of people on the Indian subcontinent and heightens the risk of conflict in the future.

The strong animosity between India and Pakistan is rooted in religion and history. Both have been acrimonious rivals on many fronts since the partition of the Indian subcontinent in 1947. The rivalry is perhaps best epitomized by the long-running conflict over the territory of Kashmir, a point of contention that today has a dangerous nuclear edge. Anger over the terms of the partition and bitter protests over the rightful claim to the territory located in the Himalayas ever since have led India and Pakistan to engage each other in three full-scale wars and one perilous standoff in 2002, when many feared the dispute would go nuclear.[i] A brittle cease-fire has held in Kashmir since November 2003, but Kashmir remains a very dangerous place, a place where the Indian army has 600,000 to 800,000 soldiers stationed at any given time.[ii]

But the conflict over Kashmir in particular is perhaps more elemental than many realize. While there are indeed many reasons for the Kashmir conflict, perhaps one of the most important is water. When the partitioning on the Indian subcontinent took place in 1947, the British failed to take into account the general run of the rivers which are lifelines for both Pakistan and India. While this has had general effects, critical rivers that feed both Pakistan and India and run through the disputed area of Kashmir in particular have been a source of conflict. Now, environmental change, spurred on by global temperature rise, may exacerbate one of the most stable aspects of the tenuous relationship between India and Pakistan, the Indus Water Treaty. While water sharing could continue to provide a basis for cooperation between the two acrimonious neighbors, it is more probable that the problem of water could be used to create an insurmountable impasse in the dispute over Kashmir, or in fact, provide a tipping point that could lead to an even more dangerous situation. With their huge populations still growing and global warming affecting water availability and quality, India and Pakistan are beginning to consider access to water to be a vital matter of national interest.

A redefined Indus Water Treaty could be a way to avoid such a laden situation. Signed in 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty is the oldest - and arguably one of the most stable - agreement between India and Pakistan, a treaty that has been faithfully implemented and upheld by both nations, with few contentious issues. The Indus System of Rivers comprises three Western Rivers (the Indus, the Jhelum, and the Chenab) and three Eastern Rivers (the Sutlej, the Beas, and the Ravi). With minor exceptions, the Indus Water Treaty gives India exclusive use of all of the waters of the Eastern Rivers and their tributaries before the point where the rivers enter Pakistan. Similarly, Pakistan has exclusive use of the Western Rivers under the agreement.

This longstanding water sharing agreement has been a sign of hope amid the high tensions on the Indian subcontinent, but both India and Pakistan may need to drastically reevaluate the agreement in order to avoid the possibility that the Indus Waters Treaty becomes another heated point of contention. While there are been disagreements over the water-sharing agreement in the past, they have been more or less solved by arbitration on the part of the World Bank. However, the problems that must be addressed are more fundamental than merely stopping the construction of a hydropower plant along a tributary river or preventing the unnecessary diversion of waters. As mentioned, the central problem is climate change.

A recent report by Kashmir University found that the rising temperatures are threatening the glaciers in Kashmir, causing them to shrink rapidly. The three year-long study was led by glaciologist Shakil Ramsoo, assistant professor in the department of geology at the University of Kashmir. According to results from the study, the Kolahoi glacier, which is the biggest glacier in that area, has shrunk by 18 percent over three years while other glaciers in the region have also shrunk by 16 percent.[iii] The Siachen glacier, where rival Indian and Pakistani troops have been stationed for 25 years, has melted to half its earlier size.[iv] Based on projections, it seems certain that the rising temperatures will continue to threaten these glaciers, increasing their rate of recession. This is in accordance with trends seen around the world. According to a United Nations Environment Programme and World Glacier Monitoring Service study, the average melting rate of mountain glaciers has doubled since the turn of the millennium, with record losses seen in 2006 at several sites.

Conflict over water has been on the rise around the world, but the environmental change and resulting decreased water flow from Kashmir combined with the intense territorial dispute over the region has the potential to become a dangerous flashpoint. Most of the available water comes from the disappearing glaciers of the Himalayas, which are clearly extremely vulnerable to climate change.[v] Glacial recession is projected to continue, which will threaten the water supply of millions of people and greatly impact Pakistan's water security. According to a recent United Nations report, Pakistan's water supply has dropped from about 5,000 cubic meters per person in the 1950s to 1,420 cubic meters today-an amount which is perilously close to the threshold at which water shortage becomes an impediment to economic development and a serious hazard to human health.[vi] India, at 1,750 cubic meters per person, is not much better off.[vii] Additionally, as mentioned, both countries' huge populations are still growing, increasing the need for water resources.

It seems that, under the current Indus Water Treaty, environmental change and reduced water flow may affect India and Pakistan differently. In particular, the shrinking glaciers in Kashmir endanger the flow of the three rivers under Pakistani control, two of which depend almost solely on glaciers as sources. For example, the Kolahoi glacier is the main source of water for Kashmir's biggest river, the Jhelum, and its many streams and lakes, and over which Pakistan holds the rights of use. The Jhelum is said to be the lifeline of Kashmir, and is critical for the sustenance of agriculture, horticulture, and other businesses - not to mention people - in Pakistan's most populous province, Punjab.

The situation is a delicate matter. Pakistan has been trying to characterize the situation as a matter of life or death, painting a picture of a desperate struggle for survival. The glacial melt in Kashmir, spurred on by environmental change, is exacerbating the dispute over Kashmir, for Kashmir is the source from where nearly all of Pakistan's major water resources originate. Any Indian attempt to secure the region of Kashmir (and thereby impede Pakistan's water supply) is seen as a direct threat to Pakistan's security. Pakistan's fears about water are not completely unfounded, for almost immediately after the Partition in 1947, India diverted the Ravi and Sutlej rivers, depriving the city of Lahore as well as Pakistan's irrigation canals of water. On the other hand, India may be trying to turn the rivers of Kashmir into religious symbols, in order to increase their claim to Kashmir and the waters sourced from the area. Some Indian politicians have sought to turn Kashmir into a Hindu holy land (of sorts) to make ceding any of its territory non-negotiable.[viii] The same motive lies behind the creation of a festival called Sindhu Darshan, which casts the Indus as a Hindu river, despite the fact that the Indus has been the cradle of ancient civilizations in what is now Pakistan, long before Hinduism even existed.[ix]

If the flows of the rivers allotted to Pakistan are reduced to such an extent through environmental change and glacial melt that it threatens the security of thousands of people, Pakistan may press for more from the Water Treaty, which historically has not gone over well with India. But other options that Pakistan may be pressed to pursue in the face of water shortage may not be quite so peaceful. Because water is the one resource that neither India nor Pakistan can do without, many experts fear that the dispute over the Indus Water Treaty - which has been an incessant source of diplomatic skirmishes that satisfy neither side - will propel these two nuclear weapons states into an all-out conflict. However, proactive diplomatic measures may be able to soothe the situation. "[N]egotiating an Indus Water Treaty 2 would be a huge confidence building measure as it would engage both countries in a regional economic integration process."[x]

The mostly-cooperative relationship (in terms of water-sharing) between India and Pakistan could be given a severe test from global warming and environmental change and the tension in Kashmir could be exacerbated as a result. Desperate to ensure access to these increasingly valuable water resources, both countries will be increasingly vying for the control of Kashmir, from where much water in the Indian subcontinent is sourced. So can this challenge be overcome? Water for India and Pakistan is vital. Indeed, the element of water in India-Pakistan relations, like its nuclear counterpart, threatens the very survival of millions of people on the Indian subcontinent.

There needs to be an equitable resolution in regards to the disputed territory of Kashmir, to ensure the continued coexistence of the two neighbours and to ensure that there is enough water for all. Throughout the history of Pakistan-India relations, the only accord that has withstood wars, near-wars, and terror attacks is the Indus Water Treaty.[xi] This emphasizes the significance of the treaty and its strength should not be taken for granted. The two nations should come together and rework the terms of the Indus Water Treaty now (in light of new information regarding future environmental change) so that drastic confrontation and further conflict between India and Pakistan - at least over water - can have more of a chance to be avoided in the future.