The Shangri-la dialogue

By Ikram Sehgal

Defence personnel tend to be taciturn. Once in a while one is privileged to listen to uninhibited exchanges of views, the Annual IISS (International Institute of Strategic Studies) Summit in Singapore being one such event. Senior national security officials in the region often use the occasion to enunciate fresh thinking about relevant security issues. The Asia-Pacific Security Summit, or the "Shangri-La Dialogue," is named after the hotel where it is held every year.




As was expected, the South Korean president used his plenary address to condemn North Korea for the unwarranted and devastating torpedo attack that destroyed the naval vessel Cheonan and cost the lives of 46 sailors. Attending his fourth consecutive "Shangri-La Dialogue," US defence secretary Robert Gates said that the US was a Pacific nation deeply committed to contributing to both individual and collective security to ensure peace and prosperity in the region.




He condemned North Korea strongly for the surprise attack on the South Korean naval vessel, adding that such unwarranted, irrational behaviour could not go without severe censure and/or meaningful reprimand to go with enforceable sanctions. The US defence secretary called on China (and other nations having some say with North Korea) to restrain such rogue actions from threatening regional peace and, given North Korea's crude nuclear capability, even world peace.




Among the other defence ministers participating in the event, which was moderated by IISS director general John Chipman, were Toshimi Kitazawa of Japan, Dr Liam Fox of the UK, Purnomo Yusgiantoro of Indonesia, Senator John Faulkner of Australia, Jaime Ravinet de la Fuente of Chile, Teo Chee Hean of Singapore, Dato' Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi of Malaysia, Dr Wayne Mapp of New Zealand, Gen Phung Quang Thanh of Vietnam, Kim Tae Young of South Korea and Francois Delon of France.




Also present were Air Chief Marshal Angus Houston of Australia, Maj Gen Zhu Chenghu of China, Vice Adm Denis Rouleau of Canada, Maj Gen Taur Matan Ruak of Timor-Leste, Air Chief Marshal Jock Stirrup of the UK, Foreign Minister G L Peiris of Sri Lanka, Lt Gen Alexander Burutin of Russia and Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov of Russia. Former COAS Gen Jahangir Karamat, the man Mian Nawaz Sharif in his infinite wisdom forced out to replace him with Gen Musharraf, was much sought after by experts from other countries. This outstanding Pakistani is one of the most respected military intellectuals in the world.




In an informal conversation, Prof Pollack of the US Naval War College mentioned frustration among the US Defence Department at China's growing aloofness with regard to military-to-military contact. Robert Gates, who expressed his deep disappointment at this "loud silence," said that his Chinese counterparts would not be meeting him, as had become the practice in the past. He regretted China's taking umbrage at the Obama administration decision to sell arms to Taiwan, what he called "defensive weapons," to preserve Taiwanese security. Gates maintained that the US does not support independence for Taiwan. Gen Ma Xiaotian, deputy chief of the general staff of the People's Liberation Army, quoted Mao Zedong's remarks to Gen Montgomery in 1960 that 50 years later the world would see that China had not occupied one inch of territory beyond its present borders, or strive for hegemony in the region. Gen Ma said that China had not violated Mao's pledge. The Chinese military leader asked the US to reconsider its policy towards Taiwan which was China's own "internal problem."




Indian national security advisor Shivshankar Menon spoke about India's concerns in the region in the "New Dimensions of Security." As a rapidly developing major economic power, India had legitimate security concerns, not only in the region but in the world, he maintained. India remained ambivalent about its various relationships in the South Asia region. Brushing aside a suggestion from Maj Gen Muniruzzaman of Bangladesh about expansion of SAARC's role to include security, Menon said that SAARC's charter excluded political and security issues. However, he did not exclude cooperation outside the SAARC charter, and said he would be amazed if India tried to fill the vacuum left by a withdrawal of ISAF troop from Afghanistan. India being one of the major donor countries, he said that his country would respond to requests from the Afghan government. He did not elaborate on this assistance-but did not exclude military assistance at some point in the future.




Menon's reply to a question about Indian Naxalites was surprising, given that Dr Manmohan Singh had declared the leftwing rebellion as being India's greatest domestic security threat. He dismissed as greatly overestimated my figure of about 100,000 armed guerrillas operating with impunity in 70 out of India's nearly 600 districts. I was only quoting credible Indian sources that in fact described 70 per cent of the districts as affected. Other Indian participants were similarly non-committal about the Naxalite threat. Unfortunately, India and most of the Indian establishment and media alike remain in a permanent state of self-denial. Menon thought that concern about Indian terrorists getting hold of nuclear weapons was overblown. Conversely, one can state that Menon's statement about the possibility of terrorists in Pakistan getting hold of nuclear weapons was similarly overblown.




Lt Gen Khalid Shameem Wynne, CGS of the Pakistan army, presented Pakistan's official point of view. Along with Maj Gen Taur Matan Ruak, chief of the Defence Forces of Timor-Leste and Vice Adm Denis Rouleau, vice chief of the defence staff of Canada, he discussed "Nation-Building Amongst Conflict." Khalid Wynne said that counterinsurgency involved four major steps: clear, hold, build and transfer. The Pakistani army had also to get involved in the "build" stage because of the lack of capacity of the civil government and apprehension among the populace. The "Special Support Group" had successfully managed the large displacement of internal refugees, and more than two million were accommodated in over 200 camps. Rehabilitation involved transferring them back before the harvesting season, and rebuilding of 350 schools, 11 bridges and 54 police stations destroyed. Disbursement of cash was made to the IDPs through credit cards, an elaborate survey was completed and 94 per cent of civic amenities restored. A 6,500 Special Police Force was planned to tackle law and order, 5,000 had been recruited and trained. The lessons learnt were that in the overall strategy to fight terrorism: (1) the "build" part is the most important, (2) nation-building must be comprehensive at the national level and (3) joint effort of all institutions with concerted help from the public.




Focussing on Kandahar, Adm Rouleau gave valuable insight into the role of the Canadian forces in Afghanistan, providing some space for good governance. His key submission about the Afghan National Army (ANA) showing signs in the Kandahar area of taking on military responsibilities was clearly more rhetoric than ground reality. It was mostly relative to the situation in 2005 and what the ANA was capable of now. The real acid test will come in July 2011 when US troops start pulling out.




Unlike in the past, Pakistan's official delegation was limited. This should be expanded to include more defence and security experts. The Shangri-La Dialogue gives tremendous exposure to our military establishment, a real opportunity to showcase the professionalism now taking hold again, gradually but surely, in the military establishment.




The writer is a defence and political analyst. Email: isehgal@pathfinder9.com