Should CIA Start Wearing Military Uniform?

By: Glenn Greenwald

The first four Directors of the CIA (from 1947-1953) were military officers, but since then, there has been a tradition (generally though imperfectly observed) of keeping the agency under civilian rather than military leadership. That's why George Bush's 2006 nomination of Gen. Michael Hayden to the CIA provoked so many objections from Democrats (and even some Republicans).

The Hayden nomination triggered this comment from the current Democratic Chairwoman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Dianne Feinstein: "You can't have the military control most of the major aspects of intelligence. The CIA is a civilian agency and is meant to be a civilian agency." The then-top Democratic member of the House Intelligence Committee, Jane Harman, said "she hears concerns from civilian CIA professionals about whether the Defense Department is taking over intelligence operations" and "shares those concerns." On Meet the Press, Nancy Pelosi cited tensions between the DoD and the CIA and said: "I don't see how you have a four-star general heading up the CIA." Then-Sen. Joe Biden worried that the CIA, with a General in charge, will "just be gobbled up by the Defense Department." Even the current GOP Chair of the House Intelligence Committee, Pete Hoekstra, voiced the same concern about Hayden: "We should not have a military person leading a civilian agency at this time."

Of course, like so many Democratic objections to Bush policies, that was then and this is now. Yesterday, President Obama announced -- to very little controversy -- that he was nominating Gen. David Petraeus to become the next CIA Director. The Petraeus nomination raises all the same concerns as the Hayden nomination did, but even more so: Hayden, after all, had spent his career in military intelligence and Washington bureaucratic circles and thus was a more natural fit for the agency; by contrast, Petraues is a pure military officer and, most of all, a war fighting commander with little background in intelligence. But in the world of the Obama administration, Petraeus' militarized, warrior orientation is considered an asset for running the CIA, not a liability.

That's because the CIA, under Obama, is more militarized than ever, as devoted to operationally fighting wars as anything else, including analyzing and gathering intelligence. This morning's Washington Post article on the Petraeus nomination -- headlined: "Petraeus would helm an increasingly militarized CIA" -- is unusual in presenting such a starkly forthright picture of how militarized the U.S. has become under the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize winner:

Gen. David H. Petraeus has served as commander in two wars launched by the United States after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. If confirmed as the next director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Petraeus would effectively take command of a third -- in Pakistan.

Petraeus's nomination comes at a time when the CIA functions, more than ever in its history, as an extension of the nation's lethal military force.

CIA teams operate alongside U.S. special operations forces in conflict zones from Afghanistan to Yemen. The agency has also built up a substantial paramilitary capability of its own. But perhaps most significantly, the agency is in the midst of what amounts to a sustained bombing campaign over Pakistan using unmanned Predator and Reaper drones.

Since Obama took office there have been at least 192 drone missile strikes, killing as many as 1,890 militants, suspected terrorists and civilians. Petraeus is seen as a staunch supporter of the drone campaign, even though it has so far failed to eliminate the al-Qaeda threat or turn the tide of the Afghan war. . . .

Petraeus has spent relatively little time in Washington over the past decade and doesn't have as much experience with managing budgets or running Washington bureaucracies as CIA predecessors Leon E. Panetta and Michael V. Hayden. But Petraeus has quietly lobbied for the CIA post, drawn in part by the chance for a position that would keep him involved in the wars in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and Yemen.

It's rare for American media outlets to list all of our "wars" this way, including the covert ones (and that list does not even include the newest one, in Libya, where drone attacks are playing an increasingly prominent role as well). But Barack Obama does indeed preside over numerous American wars in the Muslim world, including some that he started (Libya and Yemen) and others which he's escalated (Afghanistan and Pakistan). Because our wars are so often fought covertly, the CIA has simply become yet another arm of America's imperial war-fighting machine, thus making it the perfect fit for Bush and Obama's most cherished war-fighting General to lead (Petraeus will officially retire from the military to take the position, though that obviously does not change who he is, how he thinks, and what his loyalties are).

One reason why it's so valuable to keep the CIA under civilian control is because its independent intelligence analyst teams often serve as one of the very few capable bureaucratic checks against the Pentagon and its natural drive for war. That was certainly true during the Bush years when factions in the CIA rebelled against the dominant neocon Rumsfeld/Wolfowitz/Feith clique, but it's been true recently as well:

Others voiced concern that Petraeus is too wedded to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq -- and the troop-heavy, counterinsurgency strategy he designed -- to deliver impartial assessments of those wars as head of the CIA.

Indeed, over the past year the CIA has generally presented a more pessimistic view of the war in Afghanistan than Petraeus has while he has pushed for an extended troop buildup.

That's why, noted The Post, there is "some grumbling among CIA veterans opposed to putting a career military officer in charge of an agency with a long tradition of civilian leadership." But if one thing is clear in Washington, it's that neither political party is willing or even able to stand up to the military establishment, and especially not a General as sanctified in Washington circles as Petraeus. It's thus unsurprising that "Petraeus seems unlikely to encounter significant opposition from Capitol Hill" and that, without promising to vote for his confirmation, Sen. Feinstein -- who raised such a ruckus over the appointment of Hayden -- yesterday "signaled support for Petraeus."

The nomination of Petraeus doesn't change much; it merely reflects how Washington is run. That George Bush's favorite war-commanding General -- who advocated for and oversaw the Surge in Iraq -- is also Barack Obama's favorite war-commanding General, and that Obama is now appointing him to run a nominally civilian agency that has been converted into an "increasingly militarized" arm of the American war-fighting state, says all one needs to know about the fully bipartisan militarization of American policy. There's little functional difference between running America's multiple wars as a General and running them as CIA Director because American institutions in the National Security State are all devoted to the same overarching cause: Endless War.

Gaddafi's Money Manager Losing Friends

By: Vernon Silver, Elisa Martinuzzi and Boris Groendahl

As Muammar Qaddafi's forces strafed crowds of protesters in Tripoli with automatic gunfire on Feb. 21, the dictator's money manager fled the city in a car to the airport to escape the violence.

With phone lines and Internet connections down, Mustafa Zarti, vice chairman of Libya's $65 billion sovereign-wealth fund, couldn't buy an airline ticket in advance. As mobs of travelers at the airport jostled for seats on packed flights, Zarti scored a spot in business class on Austrian Airlines and flew to Vienna, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its June issue.

"It was catastrophic that day," Zarti says. "I'm very sad for Libya."

In helping run the world's 11th-biggest sovereign-wealth fund, Zarti strove to make money in global markets three decades after sanctions relegated Libya to the sidelines. He moved in the most-exclusive corners of the financial world, enlisting as his advisers Lord Jacob Rothschild, the London-based financier, and Sir Howard Davies, director of the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Stephen Schwarzman, chairman of Blackstone Group LP, attended Zarti's 2008 wedding in Tripoli. As a close personal friend of one of the dictator's sons, Saif al-Islam Qaddafi, Zarti also had a direct line to an heir of the Qaddafi regime.

Those connections are now causing him nothing but grief. Zarti quit his job at the Libyan Investment Authority three days after fleeing the country, saying in his resignation letter that the government's violence against political protesters was unjustified.

Undisclosed Location

"May God have mercy on the souls of the martyrs of Libya who sacrificed their lives for reform," he wrote.

A Tripoli native and citizen of Austria, he's now living in Vienna in a location he refuses to divulge, with his wife and young child, and without access to at least some of his accounts.

Austria's central bank on March 4 froze two of Zarti's accounts that held more than 1 million euros ($1.4 million), citing his work at the LIA and close ties to the Libyan regime. Six days later, the Council of the European Union put a block on the same accounts. The council didn't list Zarti among Libyans it accused of violence against demonstrators and dissidents.

"He is very close to the Qaddafi family," says Peter Launsky-Tieffenthal, a spokesman for the Austrian Foreign Ministry.

The EU, U.K. and U.S. have frozen the LIA's assets as part of an effort to cut off the regime's access to funding after its forces killed hundreds of unarmed civilians.

Unjust Actions

Zarti, 41, is now fighting to restore his reputation and regain access to his money. In early March, an unshaven Zarti, wearing jeans and a charcoal-colored sweater, sits at a long white table in his publicist's office in Vienna. While sipping coffee, puffing on Philip Morris cigarettes and fidgeting with his lighter, he explains in English how the stress from the uprising has made him physically sick and says that the government actions against him are unjust.

Zarti says his lawyer filed a lawsuit in the constitutional court in Vienna, demanding Austria free his accounts. The attorney also submitted a complaint to the EU body in April. Zarti says Austrian officials violated his rights by not interviewing him before imposing the freeze. He says the frozen money is his own, not the regime's, and that he didn't have access to the LIA's accounts.

Zarti says the freeze threatens his ability to provide for his wife and child and that he's now being supported by other family members.

Befriending Qaddafi's Son

"It's very, very tough," says Zarti, who has a Master of Business Administration from Webster University in Vienna. "I'm responsible for other people. I've been treated very unfairly."

Zarti says he owes his job at the LIA in part to Qaddafi's son Saif, who was the driving force behind the creation of the fund in 2007. Saif, 38, is now at the center of a scandal at the London School of Economics over the authorship of his doctoral thesis and the role of Davies as an adviser to the LIA.

Saif, who befriended Zarti when they were both students in Vienna, recommended him for the LIA post. Hired in January 2007, Zarti helped lead the sovereign fund from the time of its birth, working with Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Mohammed Hussain Layas, a banker for the Qaddafi government for more than 35 years. Saif couldn't be reached for comment.

Deripaska, Schroeder

Zarti, a former investment officer at the OPEC Fund for International Development, says he aimed to build a professionally run organization. He says he travelled the globe and met with executives such as Russian aluminum billionaire Oleg Deripaska and politicians who included former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder to scout where to invest Libya's proceeds from sales of oil and natural gas.

"Zarti is a professional," says Schroeder, honorary chairman of the German Near and Middle East Association, a Berlin-based trade group. "He was active in the debates. He's more a technocrat than a politician."

The LIA has about 70 employees housed in its head offices in Tripoli's 25-story Al Fateh Tower -- a modern high-rise with a revolving restaurant at the top. The LIA was part of Saif's effort to create new sources of income for a country almost completely dependent on hydrocarbons for cash.

That shift became possible because of a decision made in Washington. In 2004, President George W. Bush eased the last of the international sanctions against Libya for its involvement in terrorist attacks, including the 1988 bombing of Pan Am flight 103. Libya could now attempt to do openly what it had done furtively during the sanctions era.

Rothschild's Role

The LIA's predecessor, Libyan Arab Foreign Investment Co., was skilled at taking ownership stakes in European corporations that were too small to trigger the strictures. Lafico also gave generic names to its holding companies to avoid detection. The LIA absorbed Lafico as a unit and started operating in January 2007 with ambitions to be a transparent sovereign-wealth fund much like Norway's.

Zarti courted top-tier advisers to help the LIA achieve its goal of 8 percent annual returns. The fund recruited Rothschild and Marco Tronchetti Provera, chairman of Italian tiremaker Pirelli & C. SpA, to its international advisory board.

Rothschild met twice a year with the LIA's executives and other board members, including the LSE's Davies, according to a person familiar with the meetings. Davies was part of the U.K. effort led by then Prime Minister Tony Blair to boost economic ties with the North African nation. Davies, Rothschild and Tronchetti Provera quit the board and declined to comment. A spokesman for Schwarzman, who didn't serve as an adviser, declined to comment on his attendance at Zarti's wedding.

McKinsey, Mercer

The LIA hired global consulting firms for guidance on particular deals. New York-based McKinsey & Co. provided counsel on the restructuring of Oilinvest BV, a holding company owned by the fund, and Mercer LLC in London gave the LIA's mostly Libyan staff asset allocation guidance, according to Zarti. Ernst & Young was the auditor for the LIA's 2008 earnings, an Ernst & Young spokesman says. McKinsey and Mercer declined to comment.

"We've been advised by the top firms in the world," Zarti says.

Even with all of this Western expertise at its disposal, the LIA operated much like its secretive predecessor, Lafico. The fund never disclosed detailed information about its holdings or returns, although Zarti says he had planned to eventually release an annual report. Asked during the interview in Vienna about the returns, Zarti said he couldn't provide the numbers because he had left the necessary documents in Libya.

"I wish that I had papers with me when I left," he says.

Teenager in Vienna

Zarti says the fund held about the same amount of money around the time it started operations in 2007 as it possessed in February 2011. A flat return in that time span, which included the global financial crisis, would have matched the performance of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.

Zarti has a long association with Vienna. When he was 13 years old, in 1983, his father moved the family from Tripoli to the Austrian capital, where the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is based. His father took a job as a director in the personnel department of the OPEC development fund, where Zarti would later manage investments. The fund invests money from member nations to provide loans and grants to developing countries.

"I spent my most wonderful teenaged years here in Vienna," says Zarti, who also speaks German and Arabic.

Chance Meeting

Zarti returned to Libya for college, earning a degree in mechanical engineering in 1994 from Al Fateh University in Tripoli. He then rejoined his family in Vienna and enrolled in the MBA program at Webster University, an overseas campus of the St. Louis-based private school founded in 1915. While studying for his master's, Zarti met Saif, who was in an MBA program at Vienna's private Imadec University, at an OPEC fund reception.

"We met by chance in Vienna," Zarti says. "I did not know him in Libya. We met there and developed our relationship."

With his graduate degree in hand, Zarti made his first foray into investing and management in 2001. He became chairman and CEO of a Tripoli-based tuna fishing company, Ras Al Hilal Marine Services, in exchange for a minority stake. Zarti says he oversaw the restructuring of the company, which today has about seven fishing boats along with canning and freight operations.

Two years later, Zarti stepped down as CEO, retaining his chairman title and moving back to Vienna to join the OPEC fund as an investment officer. At the fund, which has given about $13 billion in aid since 1975, Zarti says, he helped provide financing for private-sector investments in developing countries.

'Kept Our Cash'

Zarti joined the LIA as its deputy CEO a few months before credit markets began to tighten in 2007. The money manager says he mostly stuck with a cautious investing approach through his four-year tenure, keeping the majority of the fund -- about $35 billion -- in money markets and mostly cash accounts, with $20 billion in bonds and $8.5 billion in equities.

"We tried to be very conservative," Zarti says. "We kept our cash. Like the Arabic saying: 'Put your money where you can touch it.'"

The LIA suffered when it turned to Wall Street for help to manage the cash heap. The fund needed to offset an inherent deficiency in its operation: Because Libya got its oil income in dollars, the LIA was overexposed to the U.S. currency, Zarti says. In 2007 and 2008, the fund purchased currency and commodity derivatives from firms such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), the fifth-biggest U.S. bank, a person familiar with the investments says.

Derivatives Losses

The bets went wrong partly because the dollar rose in the middle of 2008 as confidence in credit markets collapsed in the runup to the Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEHMQ) bankruptcy, spurring demand for dollar assets such as U.S. Treasuries. The appreciation left Zarti's fund with losses on paper that may exceed $4 billion, the person says.

"I cannot comment on these issues," the LIA's Layas says. "We are discussing and we cannot reveal information at this stage." A Goldman spokeswoman in London declined to comment.

In another move that backfired, the LIA invested $300 million in December 2007 in a five-year "capital-protected" security built by Lehman Brothers, according to the fund's filing in the firm's bankruptcy. The note's value was based on an interest-bearing cash fund with an additional layer linked to the performance of a basket of stock indexes.

Lehman Bonds

The LIA also bought $27 million of Lehman bonds denominated in U.S. dollars, Japanese yen, Swiss francs and British pounds. These investments became losers when Lehman Brothers filed the biggest-ever U.S. bankruptcy in September 2008. The LIA is seeking in bankruptcy court to recover at least $327 million.

"The LIA, like other oil funds, accumulated massive funds and was unprepared on how to spend it," says Gawdat Bahgat, professor at the National Defense University in Washington and an editor of "The Political Economy of Sovereign Wealth Funds" (Palgrave Macmillan, 2010).

Zarti says he made a few good bets, such as in London real estate. In December 2008, the fund bought 14 Cornhill, a 16,220- square-meter (175,000-square-foot) office building located opposite the Bank of England, as the city's property market neared the bottom of a slump. Since then, the commercial-real- estate market has rebounded, with office prices in Britain's capital gaining 9.9 percent through February, according to London-based Investment Property Databank Ltd.

Zarti, who was promoted to vice chairman in 2009, says he followed Warren Buffett's lead, picking stocks based on fundamentals such as profit outlook. The LIA was the second- biggest subscriber in the January 2010 Hong Kong listing of United Co. Rusal, the world's largest aluminum producer.

Schroeder Meeting

Zarti says the fund spent $300 million for 1.43 percent of Moscow-based Rusal. The LIA invested in Rusal partly because the company's use of hydroelectric power gave it a cost advantage over competitors.

"You can still make a profit if aluminum prices go down," Zarti says.

The LIA also explored investments in alternative energy. At a meeting in London in March 2010, Zarti and Layas sought the advice of Gerhard Schroeder about investing in solar power.

"They were really at the beginning of this analysis," Schroeder says. "They wanted to know more and diversify."

In March of this year, as Libya escalated its military assault on the rebels, an adviser to Qaddafi's fund became part of the collateral damage.

LSE Investigation

Davies quit as LSE director on March 3, saying in his resignation letter that the school's reputation had suffered in light of developments in Libya and his role as an LIA adviser. The LSE also announced on the same day that it was investigating the authenticity of Saif's doctoral thesis but didn't allege that Davies had any role in this issue.

Davies, a former chairman of Britain's financial markets regulator, the Financial Services Authority, wrote that he took the LIA post at the encouragement of the British government, which supported Libyan moves to invest in London. Davies told the BBC in March that he had the LIA pay his advisory fee of $50,000 into an LSE scholarship fund.

"There was nothing substantive to be ashamed of in that (modest and unpaid) work," Davies wrote. His resignation from the LSE is effective in May.

At his publicist's office in Vienna, Zarti says the Austrian government should free his accounts and let him get on with his life. While Zarti has been close to Saif, he says, he isn't an ally of the regime and has criticized its military actions against Libyans.

"The Austrian government says a lot of things that are harming my reputation," Zarti says.

Over the last four years, the money manager has gone from mingling in the elite world of finance to standing in near isolation -- much like his native Libya.

Why Christians Fear China Law

This calm denim-clad 28-year-old identifies herself only as Water, based on the Chinese characters that make up her first name. She has been deemed an enemy of the state, an unlikely label for a petite and well-educated woman who eschews violence and confrontation.

Here in China, Water is living her life in fear, under the close watch of the Chinese government for practicing Christianity at Beijing's underground Shouwang Church. She requested her Chinese name not be published for safety reasons.

Shouwang Church has came under fire by Chinese authorities three weeks ago, when the government ordered the church to cease all activity until further notice. The Chinese government has stated that Shouwang operates unlawfully. To be recognized, the church must register to be a state-sanctioned operation, which includes censoring of certain religious materials.

The government mandate fell in the midst of a recent crackdown on dissidents, activists and lawyers across China, as the government fears a revolt that mirrors the unrest across the Arab world.

On Easter Sunday, police officers stood outside Water's home and that of hundreds of other Shouwang members, forbidding them from attending an outdoor service church members had spent months preparing. The senior pastor, Jin Tianming, remains under house arrest. Those who did make it to the site in northwest Beijing were rounded up in unmarked public buses and detained inside police stations.

Shouwang is one of China's largest Protestant Christian groups not sanctioned by the Chinese government. From 2005 to 2007, Shouwang actively applied for registration with the government but was unsuccessful.

"In church, we would call this a spiritual war," Water quietly said in a CNN interview. "Every day, this spiritual war is not what I prepared for but now I find I am in it."

Water says she merely wants a margin of religious freedom, but her pursuit has been rocky. Over the past three weeks, Water is followed by the police at home and near the church site. She was detained two weeks ago at the police station overnight. Her mother, who is also a Christian, and her father, who is not, have been harassed, she said.

"My father, who is not a believer, even came to visit me at the police station where I was held," Water recalled.

"Every day I face a new situation with new difficulties. I try to ignore them but their approach every day is different," she explained. "They make my daily life pretty challenging."

Water, who started practicing Christianity because she felt the Communist Party "left [her] empty," says that she prays for her country to find "strength" on a daily basis. At the same time, she is realistic about the risks she has taken.

"Personally I don't know how long I can last because the pressure is pretty intense, because they try to harass your family, your workplace and your landlord. They want to evict you," she told CNN. "They want to control you."

Water has been accepted to a graduate school program in North America that will commence this fall but unlike most Chinese, she worries less about obtaining the necessary foreign visa than her ability to merely exit the country.

"I've seen what is happening around me and to be honest, I'm not sure how I'll end up," she told CNN, referring to a recent series of detainments by customs police at the Beijing airport, most notably Chinese artist and activist Ai Weiwei on April 3.

According to Shouwang Church, more than 200 worshippers have been arrested or detained in recent months and more than 36 were detained at police stations, including lawyers, students and artists. China Human Rights Dialogue, a non-governmental organization based in Hong Kong, report that 17 human rights lawyers and activists are currently reported missing.

Usually hundreds of worshippers gather at this illegal "house" -- or unofficial -- church, which is one of the largest Christian gathering places in the country. Shouwang -- which means "to keep watch" in Mandarin -- is an unregistered Christian group that was forced outdoors after authorities blocked the rental of its previous office space in November, the church said. It has not been able to obtain a new location since.

In China, the church debate is now being waged on the public stage. In a Tuesday editorial, the state-run Global Times newspaper published the first Chinese language coverage of the controversy. The editorial conceded the Chinese government "lacks 'house church' management experience." But the editorial also claims China does have religious freedom while also attempting to prevent "religion's shock on the rest of society."

The editorial later scolded Shouwang Church for "not engaging in religion but politics and that's taboo for the church."

"Now is a particularly sensitive time," the editorial read. "Shouwang Church is not acting appropriately, according to the state's management."

On Wednesday, Shouwang published a statement saying its actions were not political. In a blog post on its website, Shouwang accused the authorities for politicizing the church's existence while acknowledging that the 'house church' issue is difficult for the Chinese government government. "It will not be easy for relevant departments to 'completely resolve' this," the blog said in Mandarin.

"Shouwang wants nothing more than to be guaranteed to be able to gather inside to worship in stability," the church's post said.

As for Shouwang's church members, Water is not sure how long she can keep fighting for her faith. She is keenly aware of the fate of many Chinese dissidents, religious and otherwise.

"I'm really afraid of torture," Water said, with hands calmly folded. "Being tortured ... I heard many stories of that."

PML-Q supports division of Punjab province

Geo News

LAHORE: Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) in an indication to join the PPP-led coalition government in the centre, has supported creation of new provinces in the Punjab including Hazara province but opposed division of Sindh, Geo News reported on Thursday.

Talking media, PML-Q leader Chaudhry Pervaz Elahi said they had consulted around 300 politicians and party leaders about joining of the coalition government, adding that party office-bearers from all the four provinces have granted authority to them about any decision regarding it.

Chaudhry said they were joining PPP coalition in the interest of the nation and the country. PML-Q was not greedy of ministries, he said and added that to redress the problems of masses was important for them.

He further said MQM and JUI-F were also being consulted on this issue.

Referring to division of provinces, Pervaz Elahi elaborated that creation of Hazara and new provinces in South Punjab were in the agenda of PML-Q for joining the coalition government. He said his party opposed division of Sindh.

Collapse of the Afghan army is not far

By: Musa Khan Jalalzai

The US and NATO allies, who mostly rely on warlords and war criminals, must understand that the majority of the commanders and leaders of the alliance are former fundamentalist mujahideen and Taliban fighters

The cold war between the Afghan national army generals and the US/NATO commanders on civilian killings and the secret suicide units within the army and police force has exposed the failed military strategy of ISAF and NATO allies in bringing peace and stability to the country. As mistrust prevails, hindrances and hurdles increase. Recently, the Afghan army chief, General Sher Mohammad Karimi complained about the US mistrust of Afghan military intelligence information. Frustration within the army and police headquarters is increasing. Poverty-stricken and low paid soldiers, their poor living conditions, inadequate equipment and ethnically divided leadership have become big problems.

Defection is increasing while hundreds of soldiers are fleeing their battalions every month because they have no idea about the consequences of this unpopular war. They have been taught that by killing Taliban fighters, they will never win the title of shaheed or ghazi and will not even enter heaven. To escape the dangerous consequences of siding with NATO forces against the Taliban insurgents, the only way out is for them to defect or carry out suicide attacks within the army units. Afghan soldiers are not willing to fight the Taliban - they are anxious about the future of their families.

They are living in rented houses and need their salaries on time. They need medication and education of their children. The recent suicide attack carried out by an Afghan soldier in the defence ministry of Afghanistan is viewed by experts as a result of frustration. An Italian journalist, Mewati, reported that Afghan army personnel had close contacts with Taliban groups while recently a senior Afghan army official confirmed that 50 soldiers had reportedly abandoned their uniforms and joined the ranks of the Taliban.

In 2011, there has been a shift in the Taliban war strategy and suicide mission. They recruit suicide bombers for the Afghan national army to accomplish suicide missions. In some cases, Mewati disclosed that Pashtun soldiers of the army pass on secret information to Taliban groups and receive compensation. Mewati understands that discrimination in the Afghan army and the defection of soldiers to the Taliban, overtly or covertly, indicates that the collapse of the Afghan factional army is not far.

The ethno-sectarian infrastructure of the Afghan intelligence agencies and their way of politico-ethnic retaliation is another major problem for NATO allies. This ethnicised and sectarianised military and civil intelligence network cannot prevent warlordism, regionalism and federalism as it runs various terror networks in Pakistan. In my previous articles, I have already warned about the establishment of possible suicide units in the Afghan national army. The recent suicide attack in the Afghan defence ministry proved the reality that some elements in the defence ministry have established close contacts with Taliban insurgents. Senior government sources in Afghanistan said that the failed bomber's name and other personal details were forwarded to London, suggesting that he had been living in Britain.

The US and NATO allies, which mostly rely on warlords and war criminals, must understand that the majority of the commanders and leaders of the alliance are former fundamentalist mujahideen and Taliban fighters. Their social, political and business relations with the Taliban groups are not hidden from the general public. Their direct and indirect control of the ethnically divided army is a sign of a future civil war. These non-professional commanders and warlords are considered to be a big hindrance in the way of building a competent, professional Afghan army.

As per my understanding, the Afghan army represents four main ideologies. A majority of the military generals, commanders and soldiers have three to four backgrounds - they have been nationalists, communists, mujahideen and Taliban as well. They remained in the army of king Zahir Shah and President Daud who were demanding an independent Pashtunistan. After the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan, they became mujahideen. Civil war turned them against the mujahideen and they became Taliban and, finally, they took up arms against the Taliban, and are now planning to fight the US and NATO forces.

This contradictory and gloomy religious and military background of the Afghan army remains a major question. The clash of different political ideologies is more irksome. Fear about Taliban infiltration into the Afghan army units arose after an Afghan soldier carried out a suicide attack within the Afghan defence ministry.

This attack created more fear among Afghan officials, who are uneasy about their own safety and the fate of their country. A former head of the UN's drug and crime office in Afghanistan, Dr Antonio Maria Costa, once said that Taliban sleeper cells had been set up inside the Afghan security forces. "We have plenty of evidence that we had a number of suicide attacks carried out by people who had been in the army, trusted because they were affiliated," Dr Costa told the BBC. "Certainly there are sleeper cells, certainly there are individuals who are waiting for instruction to hit, and that is one of the biggest problems," she said.

The Afghan police and army officials are dismayed at finding out how suicidals are infiltrating their rank and file. The screening of new recruits has been intensified. A surveillance system has been developed while some senate members in Afghanistan have demanded the resignation of Defence Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak. A Taliban commander, Sirajuddin Haqqani, in a recent interview, revealed that Afghan intelligence agents are sharing information with militants about US and NATO troop movements. "The Afghan intelligence officials are sympathetic to the Taliban and they communicate the movements of the occupying forces (US and NATO) to us," he said.

In February 2010, an Afghan military spokesman confirmed more than 25 Afghan soldiers had left their check post with heavy weapons in the eastern part of the country and had joined the Taliban. As we have experienced in the past 10 years, Afghan secret agencies are fighting in the wrong directions. During the Soviet intervention and civil war, Afghan intelligence agencies (KHAD, WAD and RAMA) mostly targeted Pashtuns in the northern parts of the country.

From Assadullah Sarwari to Amrullah Saleh, all intelligence heads were non-professional and not adequately qualified. They have been on the payroll, became political tools and treated their own people in a brutal way. We have no record of KHAD brutalities on hand - its records were either destroyed by the Taliban or were taken to Moscow by the KGB. However, one thing is clear: the agency still needs to be restructured. How many young Pashtuns were killed, disappeared and were falsely implicated in cases under the Amrullah Saleh leadership needs to be thoroughly investigated.

Hamas says it will not recognize Israel

Senior Hamas official Mahmoud a-Zahar said a new unity government with Fatah will not recognize Israel or participate in peace negotiations.

"Our program does not include negotiations with Israel or recognizing it. It will not be possible for the interim national government to participate or bet or work on the peace process with Israel," Ynetnews.com quoted a-Zahar as saying hours after Hamas and Fatah told a Cairo press conference Wednesday of plans to establish a unity government.

The unity deal will promote Palestinian interests that are "more important than peace with Israel," Tawfik Tirawi a senior Fatah official told Ynetnews.com Thursday.

Israel Radio said the first Palestinian official to pay the price of the future unity government is Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad who will not be asked to continue.

As part of the Fatah-Hamas agreement hundreds of Hamas prisoners will be released by the Palestinian Authority, posing a direct threat on Israel's security, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman told Israel Radio.

"A red line has been crossed and Israel must decide what we are going to do," Lieberman said.

The reconciliation stems from concerns Hamas has about the possible toppling of Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime and the weakening position of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, he said.

Lieberman called on the international community to enforce demands the Palestinian Authority recognize Israel, abandon terror and respect previous agreements with Israel.

Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi welcomed the decision describing it as an "auspicious and positive move" Press TV said.

Corruption halts Indian N-submarines uplift plans

Indian Navy has failed to sustain its nuclear submarines development plan due to prevalent corruption and grafts that has seeped into Indian Defence Establishment.

According to details the Indian Navy has begun construction of its second and third nuclear submarines. The work on the first nuclear submarine continues, albeit belatedly, the delivery of Russian nuclear powered K-152 Nepra's to India by the Russians has also been delayed from March to October this year.

Russia had earlier leased a nuclear submarine to India that latter was inducted in Indian fleet by the names of INS CHAKRA in late 1980s.

Delivery of the first French Scorpene submarine being licensed built in India has been also delayed by three years. Finance has offered two more Scorpene class submarines in addition to the contracted six to cater for the forthcoming depletion in the existing submarine fleet.

Seven of the fifteen Indian conventional submarines are due to end their operational life by middle of next year. The delay is not only in the submarine programme but also other platforms.

Presently there are 36 ships and submarines on order with various Indian shipyards but all face inherent delays due to prevalent corruption and rafts that has seeped so much into the Indian Defence establishment.

An inquiry by the Central Vigilance Commission had highlighted shocking tales of manipulation of tenders, cartelization, lack of quality control and use of sub-standard material on its war fighting machines.

The Jew who stole America's 50 Billion Dollars

The David Madoff scandal came as a huge shock for most of Americans. A jew earning a lot of money is not a new phenomena in USA, as about 70 percent of billionaires in America are jews despite being just 2 percent of the total population. Given these circumstances, the committing of fraud by a member of jewish community to the tune of 50 billion dollars gives more weight to the theory that jews are making hay with impunity, from their financial and political status in America.

Other deeds:

Apart from Davis Madoff's scandal, there have been numerous un-coverings of Jewish foul play in other major crises that America faces today. Another jew Allen Greenspan, a former chairman of Federal Reserve Bank of USA, played the most important role in bringing America to its present economic condition. Other jews are held responsible for failed foreign policies that resulted in wars and genocides through powerful jewish lobby that controls the American government. Some jews like Ari Fleischer, Bush's former White House secretary have direct role in fueling war hysteria by spreading lies about Iraq and its WMD capabilities - the lies that have caused million+ deaths of Iraqis and that of thousands of American soldiers.

Rise of Anti-Semitism:

These and other crimes of jews have given rise to a new wave of anti-semitism that was quite under control because of the massacre of jews in World War 2. Many popular websites on the internet are full of anti-jewish commentary, some calling their loot as kosher while others calling it a jewish 9-11. Right or wrong, the actions of jews are speaking louder than their words (propaganda!).

US Duplicity with Pakistan

By :Sajjad Shaukat

During his trip to Islamabad on April 20 this year, while praising Pakistan's military operations against the militants, US Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen blamed in an interview with a private TV channel that "Pakistan's perceived foot-dragging in tackling strongholds in North Waziristan belonging to the Haqqani network and its continuing relationship with it was the most difficult part of the US-Pakistani relationship. He further revealed, "The ISI has a long-standing relationship with the Haqqani network. That doesn't mean everyone in the ISI, but it's there…Haqqani is supporting, funding, training fighters that are killing Americans and killing coalition partners" in Afghanistan.

In this context, on the one hand Admiral Mullen has admired the efforts of Pakistan's Army in relation to war on terror, while on the other has shown his stereotype-thinking and blame game against Pakistan's intelligence agency ISI. His interview indicates US previous self-contradiction and duplicity regarding Pakistan.

It is notable that despite Pakistan's successful military operations against the Taliban militants and scarifies of country's security forces including losses in political, economic and social terms in connection with war against terrorism, Washington wants Islamabad to do more, and to take military action against the Haqqani group in North Waziristan. While Islamabad has already made it clear that army is engaged in other tribal areas, so it cannot attack the militants of North Waziristan.

In the recent past, rejecting US duress, Pakistan's army chief Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani has remarked that a decision about military action in North Waziristan will not be made on external dictation.

It is mentionable that in the past, while talking about the failed attempt of the Times Square bombing, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had warned that Pakistan would face "severe consequences" if a future terrorist attack on US soil was traced back to Pakistan. She had further accused, "Some Pak officials know where Bin Laden, al Qaeda, Mullah Omar and the Afghan Taliban leadership are." While at the same time, sheadmitted regarding the suspect Faisal Shahzad that investigation is being carried out by both US and Pakistani investigative bodies which are "working well together" and "Pakistan is reciprocating US concerns over the threat of terrorism."

Notably, in 2009, when the heavy-armed Taliban entered Dir, Buner and other adjoining areas, US high officials and their media had left no stone unturned in exaggerating the Talibinisation of whole Pakistan and underestimating the capabilities of Pakistan's armed forces in coping with the rising threat. Quite opposite to the ground realities as witnessed by the successful military operations which flushed out the Taliban out of Dir, Buner and other adjoining areas, US paradoxical approach could be judged from the statements of its high officials who had indicated that Taliban's advancement in other regions beyond Swat, would result in total control of Pakistan by these extremists who would also captured the nuclear weapons, endangering the security of the West.

On April 22, 2009, Hillary Clinton stated that Taliban "advances pose "an existential threat" to Pakistan. On April 23, she warned that Pakistan's nuclear weapons could fall into the hands of terrorists. Adm. Mike Mullen and General David Petraeus, Commander of US Central Command had also expressed similar thoughts.

Surprisingly, when Pakistan's armed forces ejected the Taliban insurgents out of Swat, Dir and Buner by breaking their backbone including command and control system-capturing many militants, then same American high officials started admiring the Pak Army.

These self-contradictory statements of the US high officials which still continue in one or the other way, show American duplicity with Pakistan-sometimes cajoling the latter with economic and military aid and sometimes pressurizing Islamabad to 'do more' against the Taliban militants.

It is of particular attention that despite the successful military operations by Pakistan's armed forces and the arrest of renowned Taliban commanders including other militants and masterminds of Al-Qaeda, namely Khalid Sheikh and Abu Faraj, which became possible due to our country's intelligence agencies-especially ISI, the US continues blame game against this superior agency.

On May 24, 2010, The Long War Journal, while quoting US military intelligence officials wrote, "The Pakistan-based Haqqani Network carried out suicide attack in Kabul on May 18 that killed a Canadian colonel, two lieutenant colonels, two US soldiers, and twelve Afghan civilians." The Journal elaborated, "The US officials disclosed the information after a briefing by the spokesman for the National Directorate of Security, Afghanistan's top intelligence service, Saeed Ansari who claimed that the attack was organized in Pakistan with the help of ISI." On the same date, The New York Times also reported same allegation.

These are not new accusations against ISI, but are part of a perennial campaign against the agency which is the first defence line in thwarting the foreign plot against Pakistan. In 2009, The New York Times and Washington Post had disclosed in a series of allegations regarding presumed ties between ISI and militants of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa-aiding Afghan Taliban and in bombing of Indian embassy in Kabul.

It is mentionable that BBC, on October 7, 2009 displayed a documentary movie regarding the eighth anniversary of the US-led NATO invasion of Afghanistan. It stated that now this war is being fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, and "it will soon spread in Pakistan."

This actually happened so as the US increased drone strikes on Pakistan's tribal areas, particularly Waziristan. Although drone attacks have continued intermittently on the FATA, which have killed many innocent people, yet in one of the most lethal strikes, more than 40 civilians and policemen were killed when on March 18 this year, an unmanned US aircraft fired four missiles into a building in Datta Khel area of North Waziristan. On April 22, the American-CIA operated drone attacks killed 25 innocent people in the North Waziristan Agency.

Notably, from time to time, Pakistan's civil and military leadership has protested against the attacks by the pilotless spy planes by pointing out that these are likely to affect war against terrorism in the country, but American policy makers do not bother for any internal backlash as they are playing a double game with Pakistan.

In the recent months, controversy existed between Pakistan and the US on the question of American national Raymond Davis who shot dead two Pakistani youths in Lahore on January 27, 2011. In this respect, on the one hand, US high officials said that on the issue of Davis, America would not break relations with Pakistan; while on the other, they continued pressure on Islamabad for his immediate release.

Sources had confirmed that David Raymond and his companions were agents of the American CIA and were on an anti-Pakistan mission. In fact, he was part of the illegal activities of the Blackwater whose employees entered Pakistan in the guise of diplomats. With the help of Indian secret agency RAW and Israeli Mossad, Blackwater has rapidly established its network in Pakistan. It has recruited Pakistani nationals who are vulnerable and can work on payroll, giving them high financial incentives to work for them. Further, some reports suggest that this notorious firm has been recruiting smugglers, employees of the security companies, experts of the psychological warfare, scholars and journalists in order to fulfill anti-Pakistan designs of America, India and Israel. The agents of these agencies are behind suicide attacks, sectarian violence and targeted killings in Pakistan.

Question arises as to why the US has been showing duplicity with Pakistan. As a matter of fact, Pakistan is the only Islamic country that possesses nuclear weapons which irked the eyes of 'nuclearized' America, India and Israel which want to destabilize this country.

Nonetheless, the Washington which had granted the status of non-NATO ally to Pakistan in the aftermath of 9/11 tragedy has been playing a double game with the latter. Besides, frustrated in coping with Al Qaeda-related militants on global and regional level, and to justify its failures in Afghanistan, the US has been displaying duplicity with Pakistan.

Nisar offers to share proof of agencies’ meddling in politics

By: Zia Khan

The alleged manoeuvring by spy agencies to redesign the country's political landscape continued to occupy centre stage in the National Assembly with Opposition Leader Chaudhry Nisar Khan claiming to have 'enough evidence to prove their mad meddling'.

But Nisar's offer to share with the house the proof of secret outfits' interference in national politics was apparently outweighed by an advice from Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani that 'nobody should doubt the sincerity of our own agencies'.

"If you have doubts, call an in-camera (closed door) session of the assembly … I'll share the evidence," Nisar said in a speech amid desk thumping by members of his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), following a protest that almost paralysed the proceedings for an hour.

Go Zardari go, stop drone attacks and don't drop anymore petrol bombs on people were the chants the PML-N members raised in what appeared to be the noisiest protest by them since reports of a new political alignment emerged last week.

Opposition members of the party of former premier Nawaz Sharif have intensified their protest in the parliament after it came to light that the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) is seeking an alliance with the PML-N's rival PML-Q at the centre and in the key province of Punjab.

In a speech delivered to the National Assembly last week, Nisar had said that intelligence agencies were behind the proposed deal to marginalise his league.

"Call the security agencies to the in-camera session. I will present the proof of all the allegations that I have levelled," Nisar said.

The opposition leader also sought to take parliament into confidence on all key national issues through policy statement by ministers.

But in a responding speech, Gilani appeared to be shying away from Nisar's allegations against the secret agencies' political ambitions and advised him and others not to doubt their sincerity to further the country's national interest.

"The Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is doing everything on the orders of the government … we should not doubt our own institutions," the premier said in an echo of his past week's comments in the National Assembly and a public speech earlier in the day.

He then invited the opposition for sitting together with the government to chalk out an agenda to steer Pakistan out of the economic crisis, saying close cooperation would help strengthen the democracy.

"If you (the parliament) fail, nobody will be victorious, then democracy will fail … we should look different from the previous government," Gilani said, referring to the regime of former dictator Pervez Musharraf when the opposition had been protesting in the house for almost three years.

The premier also offered the government support if the opposition brought a resolution against strikes by the US-operated drone aircraft inside Pakistan's tribal areas.

Indian newlyweds offered cash to delay having children

While countries like Japan, Canada and Australia hand out "baby bonuses" to encourage people to have children, couples in one part of India are getting cash to do just the opposite.

Maharashtra state is paying newlyweds a so-called "honeymoon" bonus to delay starting a family, with the twin aims of slowing population growth and improving women's health.

Rajia Sayad was 20 when she married her husband Shakil in 2007. The couple lives with his parents in Shendurjane village in Satara district, about 250 kilometres from the state capital, Mumbai.

Money is tight and not always regular. Rajia is an unpaid housewife and Shakil is a musician, earning 200 to 2,500 rupees ($4.40 to $55) a month during the wedding season. His father earns about 3,000 rupees a month selling fruit.

The young couple signed up for the scheme soon after they were married.

"We didn't want a child so soon," she told AFP. "Our circumstances weren't so good. I was also feeling physically weak and I didn't want any problems with the child in the future. That's why we took the decision."

Rajia and other women like her were attracted by the offer of 5,000 rupees in cash if they stayed childless for two years after their nuptials. If they hold out for another year, they receive an extra 2,500 rupees.

The scheme is voluntary: the only conditions being that the marriage has to be registered with the government and that participants sign a consent form confirming that they are taking part of their own free will.

Over the first two years, couples have to attend compulsory counselling and education classes every three months.

The sessions include family planning advice. Free condoms and the oral contraceptive pill are available. Even abortions can be arranged.

India's population jumped to 1.21 billion in 2011 from 1.02 billion in 2001, according to provisional census figures released last month.

Only China - with 1.34 billion - has more people, but India is set to surpass its Asian rival and neighbour by 2030.

The family remains the cornerstone of Indian society, particularly in more conservative rural areas, with children seen as a guarantee of future income and support where little or no state help exists.

Sanjay Gandhi, son of the then prime minister Indira Gandhi, made attempts to control population growth in the 1970s, but his sterilisation scheme was so controversial that no serious nationwide project has been attempted since.

Doctors at the state health authority in Pune say four out of every 10 brides in Maharashtra are under 18 - the legal age of marriage.

In Satara district, brides are typically aged 19 and more than 80 per cent conceive within a year.

Dr Prakash Doke said schemes to encourage later conception were vital because of the impact of childbirth on young women.

"If the age of the girl is less than 18 or less than 20, the chances of maternal mortality and the new-born death rate are very high," he said.

Thirty-one out of every 1,000 children born in Satara district die before their first birthday.

In India as a whole, around 254 women died from pregnancy-related causes out of 100,000 live births in 2008, according to a study published last year in the British medical journal The Lancet.

Local midwife Ratnamala Jaganath Shelar says that changing traditional attitudes is tough.

"The in-laws don't think that their daughter-in-law is still small, isn't old enough and her body hasn't fully developed yet. They don't like all this (the scheme). They just want a child," she said.

Nearly 4,300 couples, though, have challenged tradition and signed up for the "honeymoon" project since its inception in 2007. Close to 1,200 have completed the programme. Some 150 couples have dropped out.

The project is due to end next year but three other districts in Maharahstra are now looking to start their own. The initiative has also attracted interest from Madhya Pradesh in central India and Jharkhand in the east.

As for Rajia and Shakil, the couple still plans to have children at some point - ideally a boy and a girl - but only when the time is right.

"If you have a child you should be able to take care of it, right?" said Rajia.

US Targets Pakistani Nuclear Establishment While Concealing Indian Proliferation

By: Shireen M. Mazari

US duplicity on the nuclear issue vis a vis Pakistan and India continues to reveal that the US is not interested in nuclear disarmament or even nuclear arms control. Instead, it is seeking only to target Muslim states like Pakistan from developing even their civilian nuclear programmes through restrictions on exports of dual-use technology even where it is needed purely for civilian use - especially in the case of Pakistan since Pakistan's missile and nuclear weapons programme is not premised on US designs nor dependent on nuts and bolts from the US.

The US media has been playing up cases of individuals caught under suspicion of seeking to export suspected dual-use components to Pakistan and trying to use this to target Pakistan's nuclear establishment despite knowing full well the total asymmetry between US weapons' designs and Pakistan's nuclear weapons/missile development.

Yet no one has taken note of the fact that the US government has contravened its obligations under the Non Proliferation Treaty (Articles I and III) by removing Indian space and defence related companies companies, involved in the military and nuclear field, from its "Entity List" earlier this year. This action was taken by the US Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security which controls exports and re-exports of dual-use commodities, technology and software. In this list of US military gifts to India were nine Indian space and defence related companies including those from the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO).

The entities removed from the Entity List are: Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL), the four remaining subordinates of the Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO): Armament Research and Development Establishment (ARDE), Defence Research and Development Lab (DRDL), Missile Research and Development Complex; Solid State Physics Laboratory; and the four remaining subordinates of the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO): Liquid Propulsion Systems Centre, Solid Propellant Space Booster Plant (SPROB), Sriharikota Space Centre (SHAR), and Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre (VSSC).

It is worth recalling that India is a partner in the US Missile Defense program, which has a space-based component.

This is just part of Obama's commitment to moving India into the realm of a de jure nuclear weapon power and bolstering its nuclear capability. All this is being done despite the well-documented Indian proliferation record by US think tanks. It is also yet another example of Obama's contradictory nuclear policy which is helping to up the level of nuclear armed race in Asia.

Drone attacks slammed in presence of US lawmakers in NA

A number of lawmakers in the National Assembly on Tuesday strongly criticised the US drone attacks in Pakistan when a US Congressional delegation was present in the gallery of the House. The issue was raised first of all by PPP MNA Samsam Bukhari who said US must respect its relations with Pakistan.

He said, "We are fighting the war on terror and have shed a lot of blood in this war… for the whole world and I urge the US delegation to convey our sentiments that drones strike must stop." MNA from PML-N Naseer Bhutta and PML-Q MNA Marvi memon remained more candid in their criticism. Bhutta said, "Pakistan has offered more scarifies more than any other country and despite all this we are being attacked with drones, which is an attack on our sovereignty."

Marvi Memon said that the US must put an end to the drone hits and any agreement over the same should be made public.

PPP, PML-N exchange slurs

ISLAMABAD - An exchange of slurs between the PPP and the PML-N was witnessed in the National Assembly on Tuesday when PML-N's Abid Sher Ali - in an apparent reference to Monday's statement by PPP's Gul Muhmmad Jakhrani - said tongues of those would be cut who talked about gorging the eyes of his party leaders.

Reacting to the Punjab CM's statement that Karachi should be made a province, Jakhrani had said that the people of Sindh would gorge out eyes of those who wanted to dismember Sindh. In response to Abid Sher Ali's remarks, PPP member Noor Alam said it were the people of southern Punjab who were demanding a Siraiki province.

"If anyone wants to cut my tongue, he or she should come forward," Alam said. He said corruption in Punjab was more rampant than in other areas and the chief minister was given a share of extorted money. "You are more corrupt than us," Noor Alam said while pointing towards PML-N benches.

IAF losing edge over PAF:Military Intelligence

The Pakistan Air Force is stronger than ever. Since the last Indo-Pak air war of 1971, the Pakistan Air Force has with steely determination built up numbers, lethal capabilities and a combat force now counted as one of the most disciplined and well-trained air forces in the world.

Headlines Today has a disturbing proof that all this has made India worried. A recent presentation by the defence intelligence establishment paints a morbid picture of how the numbers and capability advantage that the Indian Air Force has always found comfort in is rapidly slipping away.

Headlines Today has accessed the recent presentation made to the Ministry of Defence. The document makes singularly ominous projections. The most glaring warning is about combat force ratio.

The presentation says that the ratio of 1:1.7 is likely to progressively dip to 1:1.2 by the end of 2012. It describes this as a "historic low". It also says that the traditional hi-tech advantage is almost equal now with 9.5:11 squadron ratio.

With Pakistan rapidly acquiring early warning aircraft, mid-air refuellers and long-range missiles, the technology gap is at a historic low.

It is a wake-up call to India's military planners. The decisions taken now could forever doom the crucial advantage that the Indian Air Force has always enjoyed against an adversary that can never be underestimated.

A formidable adversary:

The last time the air forces of India and Pakistan fought a full-blown war was forty years ago.

But if the Pakistan Air Force of 1971 was an enemy to be reckoned with, circumstances have made it an even more formidable adversary today.

The internal assessment by the Indian defence establishment makes some grimly practical projections in the light of an adversary emboldened by an unfettered modernisation spree.

The government has been warned that with the Indian Air Force's edge slipping fast, the Pakistan Air Force's assertiveness is likely to increase.

Once seen as a primarily defensive force, the Pakistan Air Force will use its new strength to employ offensive and defensive operations in equal measure.

With new precision weapons, the Pakistan Air Force will conduct limited strikes to achieve strategic effects.

The one thing that won't change -- high-value targets in J&K will be high-priority targets for the PAF.

There's a deeper threat at play than just fighter numbers. Consider these newly inducted force multiplers that all but kill the Indian air advantage. Pakistan is inducting four Swedish Saab Erieye and four Chinese Y-8 airborne early warning aircraft, while India, currently, has three.

India no longer has the mid-air refueller advantage. Pakistan is inducting four identical IL-78M aircraft.

The Indian Air Force's UAV advantage is also disappearing. Pakistan is acquiring 25 European UAVs, with more in the pipeline.

Despite the ominous projections of the presentation, there are those who believe the Indian Air Force will always remain on top. Among them, Air Marshal Denzil Keelor, one half of the legendary Keelor brothers, who scored independent India's first air-to-air kill against Pakistan in 1965.

But for the IAF to remain ahead, and stem the swiftly dwindling capability advantage over Pakistan, it needs to make some hard decisions across the board.

Delayed decisions

Rapid inductions of new generation fighters give the Pakistan Air Force significantly enhanced fighting potential.

The air superiority fighter advantage that the IAF once enjoyed is progressively disappearing.

A determined plugging of air defence gaps with radars and missiles has starkly reduced the Indian Air Force's freedom of action in the event of war.

There are several reasons why the situation has been allowed to get so grim for the Indian Air Force.

Delays in the Tejas have forced the Air Force to grapple with stop-gap arrangements that don't quite cut it.

F-16, F-18: The Indian mother of all deals for 126 new fighters is still incomplete more than ten years after the IAF said it needed the aircraft urgently.

MIGs: Finally, with an ageing Soviet fleet of aircraft that are troublesome and facing retirement, the Air Force looks at an even greater dip in the numbers advantage.

The message to the Defence Ministry and the government is simple. Cut your losses and plan hard for the future. If you don't, the Indian Air Force will lose the one thing you've always counted on: its combat edge.

Public anger boils over load shedding

Protests broke out across the country on Tuesday as the people's patience with the government finally gave way in the wake of unregulated and lengthy power outages that left businesses and industries suspended and caused acute discomfort to millions as temperatures soared. The protests were echoed in the National Assembly as well, where the members' disbelief was obvious when Water and Power Minister Naveed Qamar assured them that load shedding would be reduced within a few days.

In Lahore, more than 400 protesters from Begum Kot, Shahdara and Jiya Mosa first blocked Grand Trunk Road at Shahdara Morr with burning tyres, then proceeded to attack a Lahore Electric Supply Company (LESCO) office in Jiya Mosa with stones, setting fire to records and cables, as well as bicycles of LESCO staff. Shahdara DSP Riaz Shah said a case had been registered against the protesters on the complaint of LESCO officials.

In Karachi, students of Urdu University protested against lengthy power outages. The administration summoned Rangers to disperse the protest and two students were injured in the ensuing baton charge. Other cities and towns in Sindh were also without power for most of the day because of faults in the high tension lines and the grid station in Mirpurkhas. People also protested in Faisalabad, where power-looms were shut down and business in the city came to a standstill.

Protests were also held in Multan, Rawalpindi and Peshawar, where people were angered by hours of power outages at a time. Meanwhile, Qamar told the NA the government was trying its best to resolve the power crisis, and that a shortage of oil and gas supply had caused the load shedding. Qamar said the groundbreaking of Diamer-Bhasha Dam would be held soon and the project would be completed within the stipulated time. Speaking on a point of order, Awami National Party MNA Pir Dilawar Shah said such assurances were given every day, but in reality power supply had not been improved at all. The ANP MPs also staged a walkout to protest the prolonged outages in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Pakistani, Indian agencies looking for contacts

There are good reasons to believe the contradictions issued by Indian Prime Minister's Office and Pakistan's Inter-Services Public Relations about the reported contact between Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh and Gen Kayani through a secret envoy. However, there is circumstantial evidence to suggest that both India and Pakistan had been broaching the idea of a dialogue between the militaries and intelligence agencies for some time now - the desire being more intense in Delhi.

Supplementing an earlier denial by Dr Singh's office of the communication with Gen Kayani, ISPR on Monday strongly rejected 'The Times' newspaper report saying it was "unfounded and totally baseless".

But, the story of India talking directly to Pakistan army, whom the Indian leadership believes to be in-charge of Pakistan's India policy, does not end here. Analysts and diplomatic observers say they noted a hankering among Indian civilian and military leadership for establishing a back-channel with Pakistan Army and ISI with the objective of developing a better understanding of each other's apprehensions and probably, by doing so, lending sustainability to the accident prone front-channel being pursued by the diplomatic services of the two arch-rivals.

Those privy to this thinking, however, suggest that Delhi's power echelons are still engaged in intense debate over whether or not to talk directly to Pakistan military and ISI and everyone is shying away from crossing the proverbial Rubicon.


If this channel was to materialise it would be in addition to contacts between the directors general of military operations (DGMOs) and the exchanges between Rangers.

Pakistan and India have a history of aborted diplomatic initiatives for overcoming the mutual mistrust that kept both deeply divided and the estranged neighbours recently embarked on a fresh initiative for mending ties.

The detractors of the concept of engagement with Pakistan army base their arguments on following the ethical practice of talking only to the civilian government of the day, whereas the proponents insist on recognising the ground realities.

Indian defence advisers at the High Commission in Islamabad are at the forefront of efforts for establishing this contact. One of them was at the Pakistan Military Academy Kakul last week for witnessing the passing out parade of cadets. Some see the presence as a routine matter, but the presence there of Indians, who are sometimes kept out of even regular Foreign Office briefings for diplomats, is an important signal.

The Indian defence advisers have, in the past, met ISI chief Gen Pasha. And no-one can particularly forget Gen Pasha unprecedentedly turning up at Indian High Commissioner's Iftar reception.

India may get “most favoured nation” status

Pakistan is likely to grant India the status of "Most Favoured Nation" (MFN) at the two-day commerce secretary-level talks which will begin in Islamabad today (Wednesday). Commerce Secretary Zafar Mehmood and his Indian counterpart Rahul Khullar will discuss trade-related issues between the two countries.

Sources said the Commerce Ministry, which had been consulting various traders' groups, chambers of commerce and other associations in the last few days, was set to accept India's demand of MFN status. Sources said the talks would explore promotion of bilateral trade, especially export of cement to India and import of cotton and petroleum products to Pakistan, as well as starting a cargo train service and the development of trade infrastructure along the Wahga border.

"There will not be any dramatic changes, of course, but it can help put things on the right track for further progress," a Pakistani official familiar with trade negotiations with India told Reuters. "There is nothing specific on the agenda." Sources claimed that the two countries' discussions would span three categories: the expansion of the positive list of trade items, evaluation of the negative list and investment in both countries. Sources said Pakistan would ask for the removal of non-tariff barriers (NTBs), including stringent quality norms identified by Islamabad as factors that impede trade, with the suggestion that Pakistan could only reciprocate if India opened up its markets genuinely.

Pakistan was also likely to ask the Indian side to expand the positive list of trade items to enhance existing bilateral trade, they said. Pakistan trades with India on the basis of a positive list of items, which allows imports of select products instead of the usual way of trading, which allows trade of all items except a negative list of excluded items. Both sides would also discuss the issue of giving less restrictive business visas to businessmen, said the sources. Another important point in the bilateral discussion, the sources said, was the opening of investment in both countries for each other's investors, as there was currently a mutual ban on investments between the two countries.

India is very interested in having an open market in both countries for investors as it has huge potential to invest in Pakistan and aims to capture further markets here, such as cement, rice, POL products. According to sources, if the MFN status was not accepted by Pakistan, India would try to press Islamabad to at least move for trade liberalisation under the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA). India has given MFN status to Pakistan, but the move was not reciprocated by Pakistan.

Islamabad has faced a huge trade deficit because of the NTBs in India, but has so far been very cautious about this issue for fears that opening up Pakistani markets to Indian products would hurt the domestic manufacturing sector. The commerce secretary has held discussions with leading businessmen of Karachi, Lahore and Faisalabad in the last few days to find out their concerns so that they can be presented before the Indian officials.

Mehmood and Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir also met Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani on Tuesday to discuss the trade talks, and the Indian High Commissioner met Commerce Minister Makhdoom Amin Fahim to discuss issues related to the talks as well. Gilani said that Pakistan wanted to move towards a comprehensive and wide-ranging engagement with India on the basis of equality, mutual trust, interest and respect.

The SAARC Chamber of Commerce and Industry also supported India's demand of MFN status in a statement issued on Tuesday.

Pakistan Comes Together For Brave Pakistanis Of Waziristan

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf has finalized arrangements for its protest sit-in (April 23-24) against the US drone strikes and Nato supplies passing through Pakistan. The city has been decorated with banners and posters carrying large portraits of the party chief Imran Khan.

A car rally was also arranged by the party workers on Thursday to mobilise public in support of the move. The rally started from the Nishtarabad Chowk and passing through different roads of the city culminated at the Bagh-e-Naran Chowk, the venue where the protest sit-in is scheduled to be held.

The party activists carrying flags raised slogans against the US and Pakistan governments. A large number of motorcyclists participated in the rally. It was led by the PTI provincial information secretary Zahid Hussain Mohmand, Zafar Khattak and Amjad Orakzai.

PTI has decided to register its protest against the CIA-operated drone strikes in the tribal areas and the supply to Nato forces in Afghanistan. Different political parties have announced support for the sit-in. These include the Jamaat-e-Islami, Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid, Jamiat-Ulema-Islam-Fazl, Pakistan People's Party-Sherpao and Pakistan Tehrik-e-Istiqlal.

Talking to The News, PTI leader Zahid Hussain Mohmand said that representatives of the Tajir Ittehad had also assured support for the protest. He said the lawyers would also join to express anger over the drone attacks.

Meanwhile, Pakistan People's Party-Shaheed Benazir Bhutto group in its meeting announced support to the sit-in against the drone attacks and killing of innocent citizen in Pakistan's tribal agencies.

Speaking at the meeting, Arbab Khyber Hayat said the people should stand up against the US drone attacks and block the supply for the Nato forces in Afghanistan. He said the next generation would not forgive them if they failed to raise voice against the ongoing US injustices against innocent citizens of Pakistan.

A known film actor and producer Ajab Gul also announced to join the protest. He said that his other colleagues were also eager to make the drive a success as innocent people were being killed in the drone attacks.

PTI women wing provincial office-bearers urged the people belonging to every walk of life to participate in the sit-in. The party meeting, chaired by its president Naseem Hayat, said the US was carrying out extrajudicial killings despite the unanimous resolution by the Pakistani parliament against the drone attacks.

Why John McCain Is Optimistic About Libya

BY: ROMESH RATNESAR

The war in Libya is not going well. Muammar Gaddafi shows no sign of giving up power. His forces' siege of the rebel-held city of Misratah has killed upwards of 1,000 people, including two Western journalists. One month in, NATO's air campaign is plagued by halfhearted commitment and intracoalition blame-passing. The rebels on whose behalf the U.S. and its allies intervened have failed to advance much beyond their strongholds in eastern Libya. Only a few inveterate optimists seem to believe the anti-Gaddafi forces still have a chance to win.

John McCain is one of them. "Gaddafi is a third-rate military power," he told me on Sunday. "This isn't the Wehrmacht we're taking on. These are a bunch of goddamn mercenaries that are highly paid - but one thing we know about mercenaries is that if they think things are going in the wrong direction, they'll get out of Dodge." I had run into McCain the previous night in Cairo, as he was finishing a quiet dinner with two of his aides, at a Chinese restaurant overlooking the Nile. He was just back from a day trip to rebel-held Benghazi, Libya's second largest city. In McCain's view, the West still has tools at its disposal that can bring about Gaddafi's downfall, even without a major commitment of U.S. military force. In two conversations with me before he departed Egypt for Oman, McCain described what he saw in Benghazi and laid out what it will take for the Obama Administration to avoid a foreign-policy disaster.

The fighting in Misratah over the past week has been horrific, McCain said. By the time they arrived in Benghazi, a 20-hour journey by sea, wounded rebel fighters had little chance for survival. "You just see dead after dead," McCain said. One man's entire face had burned off. McCain asked a doctor if another casualty, bleeding from his chest but still breathing, had a chance. The doctor said he'd be dead in an hour.

At the same time, the Senator believes the rebels have succeeded in repelling Gaddafi's attempt to overrun Misratah, despite the regime's claims that local tribes had been sent in to mediate. "Unless Gaddafi were losing, he wouldn't be going through this bull---- about the tribal guys coming in," McCain said. "If he were succeeding, he would just keep doing what he was doing. So this could be a big setback for him." The rebels have "learned by doing" - they have neutralized Gaddafi's advantage in weaponry by improving their use of guerrilla tactics. "Urban warfare is very nasty and individualized," he said, "and the good guys have probably learned how to fight pretty well in that environment."

McCain and his aides weren't blown away by the fighting prowess of the opposition forces they met in Benghazi; their description of the rebels' training exercises sounded a little like watching warm-up drills before a high school football game. "We're talking about a fourth-rate power taking on a third-rate power," he said. And though the citizens of Benghazi cheered McCain, they also said they were baffled at the West's seeming unwillingness to take more aggressive steps to stop Gaddafi's shock troops. "There is some anger, but a lot of it is just, 'I thought the Americans would help us,'" McCain said.

So what do they want? And what, at this stage, can we still provide? According to McCain, plenty. "We should recognize" the rebel leadership as a provisional government, he said, which might open up the financial pipeline to Benghazi. "Get them communications equipment [like] satellite phones - Christ, these guys are still talking on cell phones! We should get them equipment and stuff that may not be weapons directly from us, but stuff they need that would really help. Uniforms, for Christ's sake!" (The Obama Administration has said it will send $25 million in military surplus to the rebels.) Most importantly, the Obama Administration needs to reclaim ownership of NATO's air campaign. "I love the British and I love the French, but they do not have the military capabilities of the United States of America ... We are fighting half a war. You can never win conflicts unless you do what is necessary to win."

In McCain's view, a modest increase in moral and material support to the rebels, plus more aggressive application of American air power - including the use of unmanned drones - would cause the regime to crumble. "I don't think it would be a lengthy campaign. In this kind of warfare, momentum shifts one way or the other." But what if it doesn't? What if, even after we make the Libyan war a fair fight, Gaddafi remains in power? That remains the insoluble Western dilemma, and even McCain is unable to offer a way out. Should we send in U.S. ground troops, which Obama has already ruled out? "There would be demonstrations the likes we haven't seen since Vietnam." Kill Gaddafi, as McCain's Senate ally Lindsey Graham advocates? "That's not something you can count on. You're probably going to take some other people with him. You want to do that? What if you miss? You're going to kill a lot of people. What I'm saying is that it's not so simple."

That leaves two potential outcomes: a prolonged stalemate and possible partition of Libya, which McCain calls the worst of all alternatives, or a negotiated settlement with elements of the Gaddafi regime, which might include one or more of his sons. That's not exactly the bargain the Libyan people thought they were signing on to when the rebellion began. But the longer this drags on, the more it looks like the best one they're going to get.

ISPR rubbishes WikiLeaks report on ISI-Qaeda links

The US military classified the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) as a terrorist support entity in 2007 and used association with it as a justification to detain prisoners in Guantanamo Bay, The New York Times said, reports which ISPR Director General General Athar Abbas rejected as lacking credibility. One document given to NYT, says detainees who associated with the ISI Directorate "may have provided support to Al Qaeda or the Taliban, or engaged in hostilities against US or Coalition forces".

The ISI, along with Al Qaeda, Hamas and Hezbollah and Iranian intelligence, are among 32 groups on the list of "associated forces", which also includes Egypt's Islamic Jihad. The document defines an "associate force" as "militant forces and organisations with which Al Qaeda, the Al Qaeda network, or the Taliban has an established working, supportive, or beneficiary relationship for the achievement of common goals." The "JTF-GTMO Matrix of Threat Indicators for Enemy Combatants" likely dates from 2007 according to its classification code, and is part of a trove of 759 files on detainees held in Guantanamo Bay, the US military prison in Cuba.

Meanwhile, in his reaction to the US military classified documents, the ISPR DG refrained from a detailed comment and said, "There is no credible source in the story." A security official, however, said such allegations against the ISI were not new, adding that the Americans had come up with such statements in the past as well.

Petraeus tries his hand at restoring relations

General David Petraeus, top American military commander in Afghanistan, dashed to Islamabad on Monday in a renewed US bid to resolve the serious differences with Pakistan over anti-terrorism strategy that have harmed the ties between the two states and impacted their joint fight against terrorism. "General Petraeus, Commander of the NATO International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan, visited Pakistan to meet with General Ashfaq Kayani, Pakistan's chief of army staff. They discussed topics of mutual interest and ways to improve regional security," a US embassy statement said.

This is General Petraeus' sixth visit to Pakistan as the NATO ISAF commander. "He has long-established relationships with General Kayani and the Pakistani military from his time as the US Central Command commander. Petraeus' visit to Islamabad is the third trip by a senior military commander to Islamabad in not more than a week. Before him, the top most US military commander, Admiral Mike Mullen and new American Army Chief General Martin Dempsey also visited Islamabad to meet General Kayani and other army leaders to resolve the differences over CIA drone strikes and presence of American spies and defence contractors on Pakistani soil.

An official said that Admiral Mullen's allegations that the ISI had links with militant groups targeting troops in Afghanistan had invoked a sharp reaction from the Pakistani military leadership and in reaction General Kayani denied criticism of the Pakistan Army's commitment to fighting militants. The official said Admiral Mullen, who was believed to have developed good friendly relations with General Kayani over the years, made the statement out of frustration over Pakistan's refusal to launch immediate operation in North Waziristan owing to the army's pre-occupation with anti-terrorism drives and offensive in several tribal areas.

He said General Petraeus, like the other American military leaders, discussed with the army chief matters pertaining to peace and security in Afghanistan as well as Pakistani tribal regions. "In addition to that he also talked about the problems that the two countries were confronting in their ties and ways to do away with the stalemate. However, no way out could be found in General Petraeus' talks with General Kayani to resolve the drones' issue and the contentious matter of presence of CIA operatives here with both sides sticking to their respective positions," the official said.

He said same conflicting matters would now be discussed during the visit of Marc Grossman, US special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan later this week to Islamabad and his meetings with Pakistani authorities. Meanwhile, according to Online news agency, Petraeus told General Kayani that Pentagon was considering providing drone technology to Pakistan.

An Inside Look at the U.S.-Pakistan Feud Over Drones

By: Omar Warraich

For the past six weeks, Pakistan has echoed with ferocious opposition to the CIA's covert drones program that targets al-Qaeda and Taliban militants hiding in the tribal areas along the Afghan border. Ever since Pakistan's army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani issued a rare and fiercely worded condemnation of a March 17 drone strike, his criticism of the U.S. has been repeated by the prime minister, opposition politicians, and media commentators alike. And in that time, the CIA has fired only two drone more strikes, breaking a pattern of around a dozen a month.

The latest drone strike happened on Friday, on the heels of U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Admiral Mike Mullen and U.S. Army Chief Gen. Martin Dempsey's visits to Pakistan. Top American and Pakistani military, intelligence and government officials have been trying to calm the tensions between the allies through meetings in Washington and Islamabad. But little progress has been made: Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani continues to call for the drones to stop, as Friday's strike killed 25 people, including four women and five children, according to Pakistani officials. The reasons for Pakistan's sudden decision to end seven years of either tolerating or silently approving of the drones program remain unclear, raising questions about the nature of its current vehement complaint.

In fact, the ambiguity of the situation arises from the ranks of the Pakistani military - out of the public arena. For example, on March 23rd, Gen. Kayani played host to a clutch of senior retired generals and, amid the tea and collegial bonhomie, the conversation casually turned to Kayani's statement a week earlier. Some of the visitors wondered why he had adopted such a sharp tone, describing the March 17 attack as an "unjustified and intolerable" violation of human rights. "These drones do have some use," one of the retired generals said, according to someone present. "Yes, they do have a use," Gen. Kayani was heard to reply.

Ever since the advent of the CIA program, the Pakistani security establishment has been content to at least tolerate the covert drones, and even come to discreetly approve of it. The very first drone strike in 2004 killed Nek Muhammad, a forerunner to the Pakistani Taliban. In 2006, when an airstrike killed some 80 people in Bajaur, provoking domestic outrage and the first major retaliatory suicide bombing, Pakistan maintained that its forces were responsible for the incident - not the U.S. And, over at least the past year, Pakistani generals have come to be impressed by the accuracy of the drones and their ability to limit militant movements.

One general had even gone public with his approval. In early March, before the strike that stirred up the controversy, Maj. Gen. Ghayur Mehmood, the general officer commanding Pakistan's seventh division in North Waziristan, told reporters: "Myths and rumors about U.S. predator strikes and the casualty figures are many, but it's a reality that many of those killed in these strikes are hardcore elements, a sizeable number of them foreigners." According to the general's own figures, 164 predator strikes had killed over 964 terrorists over the past four years. The results have won the drone program some supporters in the tribal areas; the loudest protests emanate from areas well removed, like Punjab.

Drones have always been a delicate and difficult issue for the U.S. and Pakistan. The benefits to Washington are obvious - a pilotless means of warfare that allows high-value targets to be eliminated in a territory where it cannot deploy troops. In recent years, the CIA has developed its own, impressive network of local assets that pinpoint targets; meanwhile, enhanced drone technology with smaller, sleeker missiles has meant fewer civilian casualties. For the Pakistanis, the use of technology that surpasses their own has been welcome, where the targets have been of mutual interest - members of al-Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban.

Pakistan is less keen, however, on drones that targets militants it deems friendly. On his visit to Islamabad this week, Adm. Mullen said that the U.S. had "strong reservations" about the ISI's links to the notorious Haqqani network based in North Waziristan. "The reality is the Haqqani [network] is supporting, funding, training fighters that are killing Americans, killing coalition partners," he said. According to a tally by the New American Foundation, at least 24 drones have specifically targeted the Haqqani network, and even killed leader Sirajuddin Haqqani's brother, Muhammad.

Similarly, drones that have targeted Mullah Nazir Ahmed in South Waziristan and his fellow Waziri militant leader Hafiz Gul Bahadur in North Waziristan trouble the Pakistan Army. It has relied on these anti-U.S. militants in its efforts to take on the Pakistani Taliban. However, American strikes against the forces of those warlords have not elicited anything close to the current amount of vitriol.

Pakistani security officials say they are worried about the fallout from drone attacks. While they may accurately target militant leaders, the Pakistani Taliban have often invoked them as justification for attacks on Pakistani troops and bombing campaigns in the Pakistani heartland. The public, meanwhile, feels that the frequency of drone strikes - around a dozen a month, chiefly eliminating low-level operatives - is excessive.

The divergence in priorities has meant that Pakistan could never fully embrace the drone program. Any public acknowledgement of cooperation with the drone attacks would have imperiled the Pakistan army's links to friendly militants. (The U.S. cannot publicly acknowledge the covert program, either.) Those links are also why the CIA has withheld information about its strikes, only informing the Pakistanis either when the strikes were imminent or afterward. The fear is that the Pakistanis may tip-off the militants beforehand. Other concerns include injured self-esteem. The Pakistan military has long prided itself on being the ultimate guardians of the country's frontiers. Allowing a foreign power to assert itself on its soil weakens that claim.

For these reasons, it has always suited Pakistan to adopt a policy of "public denial and private acquiescence," in the words of a senior western diplomat. This was most clearly demonstrated in last year's Wikileaks dump of State Department cables. According to one cable, Gilani told U.S. officials: "I don't care if they do it as long as they get the right people. We'll protest in the National Assembly and then ignore it." After Gilani's recent anti-drone outbursts, one senior Pakistani official told TIME that the new comments should be taken in the same spirit. "Drones will continue," the official added.

But consistent public condemnation now suits Pakistan for other reasons. During the Raymond Davis affair, Pakistan's top intelligence agency, the ISI, was able to tap anti-Americanism in Pakistan to apply pressure on the CIA to end the use of contractors spying on militant groups in the mainland. Davis' killing of two Pakistanis gave them the perfect opening. The March 17 drone strike gives the Pakistan military a similar opportunity.

The incident itself is intriguing. The Pakistanis say up to 45 people were killed by the strike, including at least a dozen militants. The U.S. denies any civilians were killed. In comparison, U.S.-Pakistan relations did not suffer when Pakistani soldiers were mistakenly hit by American fire. The area involved shouldn't have surprised Islamabad: the Datta Khel section of North Waziristan had been struck by drones five times before this year alone (the last just the day before, on March 16).

By assuming a defiant, nationalist pose backed up by a populace long hostile to drone attacks, Pakistan may in fact be trying to get the Americans to concede to Islamabad a much coveted but as yet denied role in the Afghanistan endgame. The quarrel may, in fact, have little to do with drones at all.